{ "ticker": { "uuid": "86f9622c-feb9-4ff1-b087-ffc017e194c6", "symbol": "EDD", "name": "Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.734, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.237, "architecture_energy": 74.869, "architecture_maturity": 16.075, "architecture_confidence": 71.947, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.21, "rotation_up": 76.63, "upward_expansion": 91.13, "deceleration": 43.7, "rotation_down": 10.85, "downward_expansion": 15.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.862, 5.779551, 5.614854, 5.566691 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5.98, "trend_reference": 5.55796, "distance_from_trend": 0.075934, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.437436, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.347625, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.943226, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.010712, "excess_performance": -0.114913, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.075934, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024069, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.347625, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097047, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009432, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068282, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.010712, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.547076, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1546198, "relative_activity": 0.770751, "balance": 2.547076, "dry_up": 1.258798, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03361, "annualized_volatility": 0.232536, "from_high_reference": -0.008292, "from_low_reference": 0.234348 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.55796, "fair_value_reference": 4.437436, "structural_low": 4.933762, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.002224, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.024311, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.074419, "worst_return": -0.033159, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.039535, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.018072, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.064519, "worst_return": -0.002403, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.147826, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.007501, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.176359, "worst_return": 0.029503, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.184525, 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30.494672, "energy": 55.214965, "activity_lines": [ 5.692052, 5.536196, 5.459204, 5.481216 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.84, "volume": 4961669, "typical_volume": 2197993.5, "trend": 5.515623, "fair_value": 4.394658, "relative_strength": 0.702642, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.752676, "energy": 64.968449, "activity_lines": [ 5.766941, 5.609233, 5.498169, 5.503214 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.77, "volume": 1930704, "typical_volume": 2086701.2, "trend": 5.527928, "fair_value": 4.408055, "relative_strength": 0.020258, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.520764, "energy": 64.82202, "activity_lines": [ 5.787216, 5.660488, 5.530879, 5.519625 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.82, "volume": 1662485, "typical_volume": 2015542.1, "trend": 5.542548, "fair_value": 4.422354, "relative_strength": -0.222555, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.220048, "energy": 61.852218, "activity_lines": [ 5.802667, 5.710431, 5.566407, 5.538469 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.98, "volume": 1546198, "typical_volume": 2006092.2, "trend": 5.55796, "fair_value": 4.437436, "relative_strength": -0.943226, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.237413, "energy": 74.868568, "activity_lines": [ 5.862, 5.779551, 5.614854, 5.566691 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }