{ "ticker": { "uuid": "86fe8344-d74c-49de-8d08-74e4d16f9c45", "symbol": "002316", "name": "Jilin Asia Link Technology Development Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.877, "architecture_energy": 48.359, "architecture_maturity": 46.404, "architecture_confidence": 91.708, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.86, "rotation_up": 22.86, "upward_expansion": 7.2, "deceleration": 59.6, "rotation_down": 54.45, "downward_expansion": 80.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.110667, 4.144182, 4.507, 4.755419 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.39, "trend_reference": 5.046, "distance_from_trend": -0.130004, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.457692, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.015186, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.427285, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.171698, "excess_performance": -0.179098, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.130004, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053816, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.015186, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.274907, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.184273, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063504, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.171698, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.454295, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 73338570, "relative_activity": 0.980105, "balance": 0.454295, "dry_up": 1.028584, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111267, "annualized_volatility": 0.406093, "from_high_reference": -0.351551, "from_low_reference": 0.291176 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.046, "fair_value_reference": 4.457692, "structural_low": 3.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.026022, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.004245, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.604895, "worst_return": -0.234146, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.395105, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.294338, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.559278, "worst_return": -0.328321, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.166141, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.139137, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.682927, "worst_return": -0.062937, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.157343, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.110769, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.583832, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049336, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.144195, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": 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4.214667, 4.503818, 4.859476, 5.027871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.92, "volume": 63909500, "typical_volume": 77678870.65, "trend": 5.118667, "fair_value": 4.483462, "relative_strength": -25.935661, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.06787, "energy": 85.506872, "activity_lines": [ 4.091333, 4.346182, 4.746143, 4.94914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.68, "volume": 96237164, "typical_volume": 77727554.9, "trend": 5.076667, "fair_value": 4.475513, "relative_strength": -30.141623, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.906522, "energy": 81.984835, "activity_lines": [ 3.934, 4.176182, 4.61919, 4.856323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.18, "volume": 74379130, "typical_volume": 76684659.45, "trend": 5.057333, "fair_value": 4.466795, "relative_strength": -18.862348, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.050067, "energy": 57.428951, "activity_lines": [ 3.991333, 4.129091, 4.549714, 4.798473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.39, "volume": 73338570, "typical_volume": 74827231.55, "trend": 5.046, "fair_value": 4.457692, "relative_strength": -18.427285, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.876536, "energy": 48.358805, "activity_lines": [ 4.110667, 4.144182, 4.507, 4.755419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }