{ "ticker": { "uuid": "87019fa7-85d1-42e0-b912-6502cd9a6af7", "symbol": "600888", "name": "Xinjiang Joinworld Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -5.274, "architecture_energy": 26.73, "architecture_maturity": 61.955, "architecture_confidence": 59.224, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.25, "rotation_up": 14.72, "upward_expansion": 24.05, "deceleration": 76.15, "rotation_down": 62.16, "downward_expansion": 34.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.564667, 10.849656, 10.708038, 10.245477 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.07, "trend_reference": 9.711263, "distance_from_trend": 0.03694, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.64078, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.317928, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.260707, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.107811, "excess_performance": 0.151015, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03694, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.129099, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.317928, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.165306, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.132607, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.147678, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.107811, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.671409, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 314187574, "relative_activity": 1.214127, "balance": 1.671409, "dry_up": 1.269262, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.187145, "annualized_volatility": 0.784662, "from_high_reference": -0.417245, "from_low_reference": 0.430398 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.711263, "fair_value_reference": 7.64078, "structural_low": 7.73, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.022662, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.00236, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.10989, "worst_return": -0.060379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.010101, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.016297, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.173267, "worst_return": -0.158529, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.002736, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.04529, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.351485, "worst_return": -0.0906, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06044, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014388, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029326, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060172, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.088608, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065594, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.096056, "energy": 19.077932, "activity_lines": [ 10.782667, 11.614774, 10.805446, 10.258457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.0, "volume": 312797067, "typical_volume": 263326558.95, "trend": 9.648596, "fair_value": 7.625374, "relative_strength": 4.570645, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.590357, "energy": 27.491378, "activity_lines": [ 9.758, 11.124127, 10.704647, 10.21829 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.07, "volume": 314187574, "typical_volume": 258776596.85, "trend": 9.711263, "fair_value": 7.64078, "relative_strength": 13.260707, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.273914, "energy": 26.729525, "activity_lines": [ 9.564667, 10.849656, 10.708038, 10.245477 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }