{ "ticker": { "uuid": "87040329-a607-4613-8087-9ac40a5b017e", "symbol": "002116", "name": "China Haisum Engineering Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.094, "architecture_energy": 45.458, "architecture_maturity": 79.418, "architecture_confidence": 81.453, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.42, "rotation_up": 28.33, "upward_expansion": 12.16, "deceleration": 60.62, "rotation_down": 43.5, "downward_expansion": 74.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.945333, 6.954735, 7.187236, 7.501054 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.99, "trend_reference": 7.905334, "distance_from_trend": -0.115787, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.026153, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.129097, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.465923, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.218825, "excess_performance": -0.226224, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.115787, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064273, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.129097, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098761, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.174659, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059783, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.218825, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.337612, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15775075, "relative_activity": 0.747194, "balance": 0.337612, "dry_up": 0.751325, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056603, "annualized_volatility": 0.243389, "from_high_reference": -0.267193, "from_low_reference": 0.068807 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.905334, "fair_value_reference": 8.026153, "structural_low": 6.54, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.012894, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": 0.029587, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.273707, "worst_return": -0.100295, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.080544, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.014295, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.27929, "worst_return": -0.122863, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.147848, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.046614, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.383432, "worst_return": 0.10956, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.716242, "energy": 70.45901, "activity_lines": [ 6.911046, 7.037541, 7.388084, 7.706755 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.75, "volume": 18018217, "typical_volume": 23580717.65, "trend": 7.997067, "fair_value": 8.056877, "relative_strength": -18.610283, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.460285, "energy": 69.678835, "activity_lines": [ 6.842667, 6.963374, 7.292846, 7.622772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.07, "volume": 15142019, "typical_volume": 22170030.1, "trend": 7.949567, "fair_value": 8.039397, "relative_strength": -12.822377, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.334798, "energy": 53.961084, "activity_lines": [ 6.918, 6.963523, 7.238936, 7.562962 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.99, "volume": 15775075, "typical_volume": 21112417.0, "trend": 7.905334, "fair_value": 8.026153, "relative_strength": -17.465923, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.094241, "energy": 45.458278, "activity_lines": [ 6.945333, 6.954735, 7.187236, 7.501054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }