{ "ticker": { "uuid": "870621b2-a609-4167-8e74-da6fef0075a0", "symbol": "ALFLE", "name": "Fleury Michon SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.256, "architecture_energy": 42.348, "architecture_maturity": 13.979, "architecture_confidence": 83.226, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.31, "rotation_up": 11.36, "upward_expansion": 5.84, "deceleration": 44.14, "rotation_down": 67.58, "downward_expansion": 83.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.846667, 22.227927, 22.251111, 22.388679 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 21.700001, "trend_reference": 22.835674, "distance_from_trend": -0.049732, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.069916, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.016761, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.824449, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.132, "excess_performance": -0.185311, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049732, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037193, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.016761, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016607, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.148244, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012014, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.132, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.707231, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7584, "relative_activity": 1.88296, "balance": 0.707231, "dry_up": 1.260521, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052059, "annualized_volatility": 0.241609, "from_high_reference": -0.181132, "from_low_reference": 0.058131 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.835674, "fair_value_reference": 22.069916, "structural_low": 20.507865, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.004386, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.002898, "regime_survival": 0.411765, "best_return": 0.084223, "worst_return": -0.074074, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.017621, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.021505, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.192612, "worst_return": -0.125541, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.042614, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.052509, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.057935, "worst_return": -0.110132, "sufficient": 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042582, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015564, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.027451, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019455, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031621, "active": 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23.86457, 22.834955, 22.516785, 22.955972 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 23.0, "volume": 1157, "typical_volume": 3547.7, "trend": 23.562341, "fair_value": 21.899623, "relative_strength": -8.885037, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.165855, "energy": 35.103034, "activity_lines": [ 23.763896, 22.983994, 22.535498, 22.915391 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 21.9, "volume": 1374, "typical_volume": 3519.6, "trend": 23.459008, "fair_value": 21.92998, "relative_strength": -14.078978, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.685495, "energy": 21.685288, "activity_lines": [ 23.155731, 22.899806, 22.458973, 22.808143 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 21.9, "volume": 4399, "typical_volume": 3635.85, "trend": 23.322341, "fair_value": 21.959209, "relative_strength": -11.90772, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.423039, "energy": 20.363206, "activity_lines": [ 22.606667, 22.802391, 22.395305, 22.707562 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.200001, "volume": 4611, "typical_volume": 3660.65, "trend": 23.195674, "fair_value": 21.989232, "relative_strength": -10.279464, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.867855, "energy": 28.529114, "activity_lines": [ 22.28, 22.74284, 22.37259, 22.635153 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.9, "volume": 4392, "typical_volume": 3784.45, "trend": 23.069008, "fair_value": 22.01451, "relative_strength": -11.442354, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.943973, "energy": 33.92747, "activity_lines": [ 22.053334, 22.604883, 22.332256, 22.551561 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.799999, "volume": 3721, "typical_volume": 3739.25, "trend": 22.955674, "fair_value": 22.042251, "relative_strength": -12.828321, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.333741, "energy": 32.549484, "activity_lines": [ 21.926667, 22.43379, 22.294778, 22.46969 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.700001, "volume": 7584, "typical_volume": 4027.7, "trend": 22.835674, "fair_value": 22.069916, "relative_strength": -14.824449, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.256253, "energy": 42.347965, "activity_lines": [ 21.846667, 22.227927, 22.251111, 22.388679 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }