{ "ticker": { "uuid": "870a6d22-6cd1-43a2-bff3-1396c3049dd0", "symbol": "603305", "name": "Ningbo Xusheng Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.661, "architecture_energy": 65.736, "architecture_maturity": 32.189, "architecture_confidence": 84.119, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.96, "rotation_up": 13.55, "upward_expansion": 12.72, "deceleration": 44.6, "rotation_down": 69.4, "downward_expansion": 86.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.371333, 11.820531, 13.07022, 13.812451 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.02, "trend_reference": 15.069412, "distance_from_trend": -0.202358, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.684493, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.181449, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.755263, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.328492, "excess_performance": -0.285288, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.202358, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043692, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.181449, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.234107, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.197553, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.203536, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.328492, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.708054, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 110531117, "relative_activity": 0.951801, "balance": 0.708054, "dry_up": 0.907588, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112895, "annualized_volatility": 0.482523, "from_high_reference": -0.464588, "from_low_reference": 0.172683 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.069412, "fair_value_reference": 14.684493, "structural_low": 10.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.038284, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": 0.010089, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.229644, "worst_return": -0.235378, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.019912, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001338, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.759157, "worst_return": -0.289538, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.019166, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.029618, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.812044, "worst_return": -0.379735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 14.760297, "relative_strength": -21.954801, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.822764, "energy": 79.177786, "activity_lines": [ 11.209333, 11.936806, 13.253041, 14.018134 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.02, "volume": 110531117, "typical_volume": 116128345.3, "trend": 15.069412, "fair_value": 14.684493, "relative_strength": -19.755263, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.661177, "energy": 65.735918, "activity_lines": [ 11.371333, 11.820531, 13.07022, 13.812451 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }