{ "ticker": { "uuid": "870ebe74-4c35-45e6-b9da-1c56b295bb1d", "symbol": "BCCMS", "name": "UBS BBG Commodity CMCI SF UCITS ETF hCHF acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 60.118, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.002, "architecture_energy": 20.74, "architecture_maturity": 36.681, "architecture_confidence": 58.698, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.38, "rotation_up": 48.85, "upward_expansion": 55.5, "deceleration": 67.4, "rotation_down": 12.13, "downward_expansion": 19.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.418, 16.268436, 16.446467, 16.409647 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.422001, "trend_reference": 16.208867, "distance_from_trend": 0.013149, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.709155, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.197886, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.570606, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.091453, "excess_performance": 0.00857, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013149, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043292, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.197886, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072957, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.025706, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166967, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.091453, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.295937, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1523601, "relative_activity": 5.11928, "balance": 0.295937, "dry_up": 1.68349, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032236, "annualized_volatility": 0.139557, "from_high_reference": -0.078968, "from_low_reference": 0.265958 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.208867, "fair_value_reference": 13.709155, "structural_low": 14.858, "invalidation": "A 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"relative_strength": -2.534577, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.189566, "energy": 26.028127, "activity_lines": [ 15.9544, 16.268982, 16.480124, 16.31231 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.194, "volume": 130431, "typical_volume": 227134.9, "trend": 16.011067, "fair_value": 13.646835, "relative_strength": -2.428863, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.988808, "energy": 25.612469, "activity_lines": [ 16.014133, 16.204945, 16.452543, 16.32868 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.612, "volume": 121049, "typical_volume": 225852.2, "trend": 16.087467, "fair_value": 13.667745, "relative_strength": 0.150292, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.209765, "energy": 12.630761, "activity_lines": [ 16.224667, 16.232473, 16.462133, 16.367449 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.469999, "volume": 229082, "typical_volume": 228149.45, "trend": 16.150467, "fair_value": 13.688514, "relative_strength": -0.898674, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.490002, "energy": 16.021547, "activity_lines": [ 16.356666, 16.248436, 16.456381, 16.392129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.422001, "volume": 1523601, "typical_volume": 297620.2, "trend": 16.208867, "fair_value": 13.709155, "relative_strength": -2.570606, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.002004, "energy": 20.740162, "activity_lines": [ 16.418, 16.268436, 16.446467, 16.409647 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }