{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8725a6bb-8a8c-485e-9a60-3d642e553872", "symbol": "002616", "name": "Guangdong Chant Group Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.36, "architecture_energy": 42.239, "architecture_maturity": 61.197, "architecture_confidence": 63.116, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.93, "rotation_up": 24.76, "upward_expansion": 18.12, "deceleration": 66.62, "rotation_down": 42.26, "downward_expansion": 65.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.674, 4.670727, 4.973205, 5.171788 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.69, "trend_reference": 5.360249, "distance_from_trend": -0.125041, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.001429, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.062268, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.35353, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.156941, "excess_performance": -0.16434, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.125041, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051306, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.062268, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.233934, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.193535, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009237, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.156941, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.377024, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51822130, "relative_activity": 0.65449, "balance": 0.377024, "dry_up": 0.651293, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076431, "annualized_volatility": 0.43358, "from_high_reference": -0.349372, "from_low_reference": 0.058691 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.360249, "fair_value_reference": 5.001429, "structural_low": 4.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.025685, "positive_rate": 0.64, "directional_follow_through": 0.36, "median_excess_return": 0.017625, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.238806, "worst_return": -0.168297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.030775, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.02432, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.158009, "worst_return": -0.149171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.069026, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.082109, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.125593, "worst_return": -0.16435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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4.69, "volume": 51822130, "typical_volume": 79179435.0, "trend": 5.360249, "fair_value": 5.001429, "relative_strength": -19.35353, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.359777, "energy": 42.239239, "activity_lines": [ 4.674, 4.670727, 4.973205, 5.171788 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }