{ "ticker": { "uuid": "87271aeb-8425-4ef3-bb86-e899ad58cca0", "symbol": "5514", "name": "Sunfon Construction Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.756, "architecture_energy": 23.105, "architecture_maturity": 72.204, "architecture_confidence": 78.469, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.41, "rotation_up": 25.92, "upward_expansion": 18.8, "deceleration": 46.62, "rotation_down": 33.9, "downward_expansion": 59.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.936667, 13.83, 14.116905, 14.516667 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.3, "trend_reference": 14.985, "distance_from_trend": -0.045712, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.032542, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.206989, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.332745, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.100629, "excess_performance": -0.542001, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045712, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06158, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.206989, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037547, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.373327, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026912, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.100629, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.825161, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46028, "relative_activity": 0.173691, "balance": 0.825161, "dry_up": 1.477171, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068854, "annualized_volatility": 0.179923, "from_high_reference": -0.207756, "from_low_reference": 0.095785 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.985, "fair_value_reference": 18.032542, "structural_low": 13.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.01278, "positive_rate": 0.296296, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": -0.022191, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.154294, "worst_return": -0.091139, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.02, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.102804, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.017721, "worst_return": -0.116352, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.041075, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.248418, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.096203, "worst_return": -0.180758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.731391, "energy": 52.773843, "activity_lines": [ 13.623333, 13.822727, 14.463095, 14.851935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.55, "volume": 581188, "typical_volume": 223225.6, "trend": 15.241667, "fair_value": 18.120486, "relative_strength": -40.682149, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.663887, "energy": 50.023303, "activity_lines": [ 13.56, 13.725455, 14.327857, 14.735054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.0, "volume": 607001, "typical_volume": 252118.4, "trend": 15.141667, "fair_value": 18.090184, "relative_strength": -36.973725, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.164, "energy": 42.061213, "activity_lines": [ 13.68, 13.741818, 14.246429, 14.654946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.75, "volume": 331579, "typical_volume": 264752.25, "trend": 15.051667, "fair_value": 18.059747, "relative_strength": -38.61937, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.68282, "energy": 36.78314, "activity_lines": [ 13.72, 13.734545, 14.149762, 14.565161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 14.3, "volume": 46028, "typical_volume": 264999.1, "trend": 14.985, "fair_value": 18.032542, "relative_strength": -37.332745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.756314, "energy": 23.105434, "activity_lines": [ 13.936667, 13.83, 14.116905, 14.516667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }