{ "ticker": { "uuid": "87282075-80a4-4d98-bccb-853b1d119646", "symbol": "HLMA", "name": "Halma plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 64.38, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.282, "architecture_energy": 44.454, "architecture_maturity": 12.029, "architecture_confidence": 71.724, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.44, "rotation_up": 18.96, "upward_expansion": 14.53, "deceleration": 52.79, "rotation_down": 64.11, "downward_expansion": 53.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 3662.266667, 3745.277805, 3995.780635, 4022.713091 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3796.0, "trend_reference": 3997.33218, "distance_from_trend": -0.050367, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2931.750624, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.29479, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.863568, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.069899, "excess_performance": 0.018663, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050367, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028381, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.29479, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.338606, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068636, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.283926, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.069899, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.756249, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6671957, "relative_activity": 1.39554, "balance": 0.756249, "dry_up": 1.516406, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073082, "annualized_volatility": 0.418456, "from_high_reference": -0.21599, "from_low_reference": 0.188511 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3997.33218, "fair_value_reference": 2931.750624, "structural_low": 3268.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.133408, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.083193, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.144664, "worst_return": 0.122152, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.163231, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.099166, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.271202, "worst_return": 0.055259, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.212357, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.149232, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.381088, "worst_return": 0.043626, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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-40.859866, "energy": 57.196762, "activity_lines": [ 3841.420927, 4064.38438, 4174.713309, 4109.603116 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3676.0, "volume": 8164092, "typical_volume": 4650833.75, "trend": 3990.465513, "fair_value": 2903.505513, "relative_strength": -7.537555, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.350092, "energy": 63.201252, "activity_lines": [ 3776.729693, 3964.021373, 4129.256331, 4089.517169 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3614.0, "volume": 5997170, "typical_volume": 4605529.85, "trend": 3991.998847, "fair_value": 2912.264651, "relative_strength": -10.162074, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.1714, "energy": 64.410156, "activity_lines": [ 3705.090693, 3868.331093, 4080.313639, 4065.229071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3530.0, "volume": 8166006, "typical_volume": 4736060.7, "trend": 3992.998847, "fair_value": 2921.100598, "relative_strength": -13.18228, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.437005, "energy": 68.799133, "activity_lines": [ 3627.42006, 3773.222631, 4024.551899, 4035.422694 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3796.0, "volume": 6671957, "typical_volume": 4780912.7, "trend": 3997.33218, "fair_value": 2931.750624, "relative_strength": -6.863568, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.28195, "energy": 44.453554, "activity_lines": [ 3662.266667, 3745.277805, 3995.780635, 4022.713091 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }