{ "ticker": { "uuid": "87298816-eeca-4b9f-b7cd-6897c387f561", "symbol": "LKO", "name": "Lakes Blue Energy NL", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.026, "architecture_energy": 58.197, "architecture_maturity": 61.965, "architecture_confidence": 84.621, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.89, "rotation_up": 18.6, "upward_expansion": 7.32, "deceleration": 50.91, "rotation_down": 62.96, "downward_expansion": 78.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.403, 0.452273, 0.474952, 0.570333 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.265, "trend_reference": 0.756833, "distance_from_trend": -0.649857, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.996667, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.734114, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -74.220843, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.800752, "excess_performance": -0.864458, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.649857, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.289358, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.734114, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.280893, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.742208, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.247823, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.800752, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.163528, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2583053, "relative_activity": 7.45724, "balance": 0.163528, "dry_up": 2.487517, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.470686, "annualized_volatility": 1.238594, "from_high_reference": -0.848571, "from_low_reference": 0.019231 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.756833, "fair_value_reference": 0.996667, "structural_low": 0.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.036427, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.514706, "worst_return": -0.315385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.021269, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.474359, "worst_return": -0.316901, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.336538, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.352255, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.673077, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.31, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.087592, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.31, "worst_return": 0.31, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2022-02-11", "end": "2022-02-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2022-02-25", "end": "2022-03-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-03-11", "end": "2022-06-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2022-06-24", "end": "2022-08-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-08-12", "end": "2022-10-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.300725, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.359116, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.371429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.307359, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.992572, "energy": 35.732542, "activity_lines": [ 0.493333, 0.488182, 0.501714, 0.60429 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.265, "volume": 2583053, "typical_volume": 346381.9, "trend": 0.756833, "fair_value": 0.996667, "relative_strength": -74.220843, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.026005, "energy": 58.19702, "activity_lines": [ 0.403, 0.452273, 0.474952, 0.570333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }