{ "ticker": { "uuid": "872a0938-27d7-4789-b6c1-d0279ddc875e", "symbol": "ALCOG", "name": "Cogra 48 Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 83.948, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.979, "architecture_energy": 43.245, "architecture_maturity": 10.279, "architecture_confidence": 76.319, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.04, "rotation_up": 18.63, "upward_expansion": 7.87, "deceleration": 44.84, "rotation_down": 47.92, "downward_expansion": 76.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.956, 7.004364, 7.177619, 7.291355 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.96, "trend_reference": 7.309333, "distance_from_trend": -0.047793, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.099705, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.019678, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.653416, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.067485, "excess_performance": 0.014173, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047793, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089157, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.019678, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016513, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.026534, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.249924, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.067485, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.561746, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8768, "relative_activity": 1.11007, "balance": 2.561746, "dry_up": 1.02879, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051282, "annualized_volatility": 0.269579, "from_high_reference": -0.177305, "from_low_reference": 0.539823 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.309333, "fair_value_reference": 7.099705, "structural_low": 6.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.011461, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.021775, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.409756, "worst_return": -0.151703, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.094411, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.063029, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.482927, "worst_return": -0.220679, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.183603, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.181157, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.278049, "worst_return": -0.493827, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056537, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.079038, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.032847, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015625, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.212625, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016949, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014164, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.5, "volume": 5406, "typical_volume": 14768.65, "trend": 12.095667, "fair_value": 10.121538, "relative_strength": -8.415922, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 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"method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }