{ "ticker": { "uuid": "872c0407-c5d6-47bf-9805-8a0cd25c7f00", "symbol": "00668", "name": "Cathay DJIA ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.118, "architecture_energy": 73.91, "architecture_maturity": 49.521, "architecture_confidence": 64.588, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.72, "rotation_up": 72.81, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 63.79, "rotation_down": 20.13, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 62.15, 61.562728, 60.062143, 58.913118 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 63.25, "trend_reference": 57.771667, "distance_from_trend": 0.094827, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.235128, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.284652, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.350842, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.129464, "excess_performance": -0.249848, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094827, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039744, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.284652, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085131, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.163508, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114365, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.129464, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.836796, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 665132, "relative_activity": 1.261534, "balance": 4.836796, "dry_up": 0.805989, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017391, "annualized_volatility": 0.103259, "from_high_reference": -0.01403, "from_low_reference": 0.33242 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.771667, "fair_value_reference": 49.235128, "structural_low": 52.299999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.010096, "positive_rate": 0.657895, "directional_follow_through": 0.657895, "median_excess_return": -0.012596, "regime_survival": 0.763158, "best_return": 0.050476, "worst_return": -0.078913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.005942, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.021416, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.095136, "worst_return": -0.069823, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.03851, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.030621, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.095848, "worst_return": -0.062919, 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"direction": 74.573514, "energy": 90.623275, "activity_lines": [ 61.270001, 60.410001, 58.816429, 57.974946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 61.150002, "volume": 382481, "typical_volume": 541811.35, "trend": 57.301667, "fair_value": 48.946282, "relative_strength": -19.204773, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.355786, "energy": 87.879519, "activity_lines": [ 61.336668, 60.683637, 59.165953, 58.236129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 62.049999, "volume": 152228, "typical_volume": 525462.6, "trend": 57.505, "fair_value": 49.088269, "relative_strength": -16.424598, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.363273, "energy": 75.358392, "activity_lines": [ 61.603334, 61.05091, 59.574524, 58.542473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.25, "volume": 665132, "typical_volume": 527240.6, "trend": 57.771667, "fair_value": 49.235128, "relative_strength": -16.350842, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.11816, "energy": 73.910409, "activity_lines": [ 62.15, 61.562728, 60.062143, 58.913118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }