{ "ticker": { "uuid": "872e2be6-a6c8-439e-bc9a-3312a616a333", "symbol": "POCHTECB", "name": "Grupo Pochteca, S.A.B. de C.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -86.414, "architecture_energy": 92.757, "architecture_maturity": 31.489, "architecture_confidence": 82.749, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.67, "rotation_up": 8.84, "upward_expansion": 21.83, "deceleration": 37.05, "rotation_down": 80.84, "downward_expansion": 95.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.576, 5.732545, 5.913286, 6.008667 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.39, "trend_reference": 6.115333, "distance_from_trend": -0.118609, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.580192, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.180875, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.111258, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.138978, "excess_performance": -0.084311, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.118609, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022693, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.180875, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107649, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.151113, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051421, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.138978, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.060987, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 68530, "relative_activity": 1.235691, "balance": 0.060987, "dry_up": 1.151164, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034537, "annualized_volatility": 0.161102, "from_high_reference": -0.157813, "from_low_reference": 0.016981 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.115333, "fair_value_reference": 6.580192, "structural_low": 5.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.001534, "positive_rate": 0.323529, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011925, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.082258, "worst_return": -0.13649, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.014026, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.032102, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.203704, "worst_return": -0.073407, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.059715, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.075492, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.207143, "worst_return": -0.118825, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.69706, "energy": 78.860378, "activity_lines": [ 5.904, 6.001273, 6.100619, 6.147849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.88, "volume": 17908, "typical_volume": 45440.35, "trend": 6.187667, "fair_value": 6.623846, "relative_strength": -8.427313, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.474814, "energy": 71.940392, "activity_lines": [ 5.874, 5.967455, 6.073667, 6.127204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.88, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 45108.45, "trend": 6.174333, "fair_value": 6.610897, "relative_strength": -7.720493, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.773319, "energy": 72.045644, "activity_lines": [ 5.864, 5.940545, 6.048476, 6.107355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.4, "volume": 168931, "typical_volume": 52507.3, "trend": 6.145333, "fair_value": 6.595641, "relative_strength": -15.460538, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.946292, "energy": 90.224225, "activity_lines": [ 5.702, 5.832, 5.979333, 6.057398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.39, "volume": 68530, "typical_volume": 55458.85, "trend": 6.115333, "fair_value": 6.580192, "relative_strength": -15.111258, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.413532, "energy": 92.756795, "activity_lines": [ 5.576, 5.732545, 5.913286, 6.008667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }