{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8731af34-b605-4b09-97b8-7266786ebaa0", "symbol": "ALLO", "name": "Allogene Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 48.696, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.492, "architecture_energy": 51.947, "architecture_maturity": 6.754, "architecture_confidence": 81.449, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.03, "rotation_up": 15.27, "upward_expansion": 11.5, "deceleration": 38.52, "rotation_down": 54.74, "downward_expansion": 82.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.891333, 1.928545, 2.00581, 2.068237 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.01, "trend_reference": 2.081667, "distance_from_trend": -0.034428, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.314359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.131509, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.395785, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.189349, "excess_performance": 0.001895, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034428, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096769, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.131509, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01545, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.013958, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.212534, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.189349, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.996403, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23963004, "relative_activity": 0.516483, "balance": 0.996403, "dry_up": 0.666192, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.129923, "annualized_volatility": 0.77496, "from_high_reference": -0.549327, "from_low_reference": 1.030098 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.081667, "fair_value_reference": 2.314359, "structural_low": 1.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": -0.033172, "positive_rate": 0.404762, "directional_follow_through": 0.595238, "median_excess_return": -0.048482, "regime_survival": 0.880952, "best_return": 0.533892, "worst_return": -0.304795, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.0953, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.218404, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.129555, "worst_return": -0.455187, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.304456, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.355579, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.154472, "worst_return": -0.562057, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.370736, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.450857, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.11336, "worst_return": -0.718037, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-12-09", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.63242, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.417476, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031315, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.247148, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.192105, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.148551, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054902, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.361486, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.331551, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", 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"volume": 52056755, "typical_volume": 45970010.05, "trend": 2.029667, "fair_value": 2.389295, "relative_strength": 1.949818, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.007531, "energy": 1.928998, "activity_lines": [ 2.040667, 2.027636, 2.121, 2.118387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.79, "volume": 31644016, "typical_volume": 45790753.55, "trend": 2.042, "fair_value": 2.366154, "relative_strength": -5.023497, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.901881, "energy": 28.112063, "activity_lines": [ 1.963333, 1.981455, 2.080524, 2.102925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.74, "volume": 22607321, "typical_volume": 46014297.3, "trend": 2.054, "fair_value": 2.345769, "relative_strength": -6.101995, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.147568, "energy": 48.917256, "activity_lines": [ 1.876667, 1.935091, 2.04, 2.083441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.88, "volume": 45421688, "typical_volume": 47213161.05, "trend": 2.071667, "fair_value": 2.328397, "relative_strength": 0.345964, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.451266, "energy": 47.86149, "activity_lines": [ 1.854, 1.918909, 2.015476, 2.072215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.01, "volume": 23963004, "typical_volume": 46396535.45, "trend": 2.081667, "fair_value": 2.314359, "relative_strength": 1.395785, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.491896, "energy": 51.94742, "activity_lines": [ 1.891333, 1.928545, 2.00581, 2.068237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }