{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8732c109-e13e-4bfe-8742-6b5ef1e900ec", "symbol": "300620", "name": "Advanced Fiber Resources (Zhuhai), Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.198, "architecture_energy": 21.645, "architecture_maturity": 80.095, "architecture_confidence": 76.116, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.06, "rotation_up": 19.46, "upward_expansion": 43.5, "deceleration": 85.02, "rotation_down": 44.56, "downward_expansion": 35.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 248.023329, 273.844177, 278.289642, 260.541626 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 288.079987, "trend_reference": 232.568535, "distance_from_trend": 0.238689, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 90.100582, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.197315, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 56.23555, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.793224, "excess_performance": 0.785825, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.238689, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.292528, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.197315, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.48055, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.562355, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.24824, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.793224, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.125374, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 92692379, "relative_activity": 1.327823, "balance": 1.125374, "dry_up": 0.952724, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.214521, "annualized_volatility": 0.89347, "from_high_reference": -0.288656, "from_low_reference": 4.235095 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 232.568535, "fair_value_reference": 90.100582, "structural_low": 142.792572, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.041228, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.087442, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.375106, "worst_return": -0.189417, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.137827, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.136957, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.73502, "worst_return": -0.424734, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.168222, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.232108, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.568884, "worst_return": -0.283222, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.252747, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.041875, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.159988, "worst_return": -0.345506, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.028267, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.224858, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.018965, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.187434, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042853, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.17089, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028296, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.087266, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.276829, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 238.899994, "volume": 56835875, "typical_volume": 72902090.45, "trend": 223.633782, "fair_value": 86.58307, "relative_strength": 43.296348, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.70766, "energy": 21.526978, "activity_lines": [ 294.007326, 304.315085, 283.728065, 257.585089 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 230.050003, "volume": 64324709, "typical_volume": 71820699.0, "trend": 226.106025, "fair_value": 87.620184, "relative_strength": 34.738855, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.089335, "energy": 21.131105, "activity_lines": [ 264.34533, 291.26345, 281.138826, 257.999038 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 205.300003, "volume": 52177244, "typical_volume": 70164750.35, "trend": 227.863851, "fair_value": 88.565196, "relative_strength": 20.053823, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -9.170011, "energy": 26.039466, "activity_lines": [ 237.149999, 274.474906, 275.868577, 256.656714 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 288.079987, "volume": 92692379, "typical_volume": 69807778.1, "trend": 232.568535, "fair_value": 90.100582, "relative_strength": 56.23555, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.198073, "energy": 21.644942, "activity_lines": [ 248.023329, 273.844177, 278.289642, 260.541626 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }