{ "ticker": { "uuid": "87385f5f-394c-427f-877d-b818c37ea9d9", "symbol": "2617", "name": "Taiwan Navigation Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 52.841, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 11.127, "architecture_energy": 13.693, "architecture_maturity": 12.131, "architecture_confidence": 57.667, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.08, "rotation_up": 44.1, "upward_expansion": 39.53, "deceleration": 31.3, "rotation_down": 20.82, "downward_expansion": 14.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.77, 28.715773, 28.453179, 28.53107 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.75, "trend_reference": 28.703166, "distance_from_trend": 0.001632, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.975464, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.027686, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -27.596304, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.007093, "excess_performance": -0.434279, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001632, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003336, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.027686, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04209, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.275963, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06066, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.007093, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.909024, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4354226, "relative_activity": 1.282755, "balance": 0.909024, "dry_up": 1.057345, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034301, "annualized_volatility": 0.155685, "from_high_reference": -0.136572, "from_low_reference": 0.144165 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.703166, "fair_value_reference": 27.975464, "structural_low": 26.884999, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.006803, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.006968, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.147228, "worst_return": -0.202201, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.006101, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.009457, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.13945, "worst_return": -0.0957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.052448, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.06599, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.144385, "worst_return": -0.148501, "sufficient": true }, { 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.838424, "energy": 24.381645, "activity_lines": [ 28.824501, 28.573318, 28.375309, 28.538468 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.450001, "volume": 3115020, "typical_volume": 3391298.1, "trend": 28.729, "fair_value": 27.910857, "relative_strength": -25.394331, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.463134, "energy": 16.370867, "activity_lines": [ 28.755001, 28.594728, 28.371071, 28.519339 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.9, "volume": 3330299, "typical_volume": 3321657.15, "trend": 28.739166, "fair_value": 27.941436, "relative_strength": -25.397546, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.476636, "energy": 17.937886, "activity_lines": [ 28.785001, 28.681591, 28.417393, 28.530371 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 28.75, "volume": 4354226, "typical_volume": 3394432.7, "trend": 28.703166, "fair_value": 27.975464, "relative_strength": -27.596304, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.126735, "energy": 13.693035, "activity_lines": [ 28.77, 28.715773, 28.453179, 28.53107 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }