{ "ticker": { "uuid": "873b8e13-4d85-488f-962b-2d2cfbf1ddf7", "symbol": "000032", "name": "Shenzhen SED Industry Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.563, "architecture_energy": 54.0, "architecture_maturity": 20.428, "architecture_confidence": 62.526, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.45, "rotation_up": 8.07, "upward_expansion": 6.01, "deceleration": 50.17, "rotation_down": 75.28, "downward_expansion": 79.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.883333, 17.286727, 17.995099, 18.26262 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.8, "trend_reference": 18.862293, "distance_from_trend": -0.215366, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.533831, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.24234, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.562468, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.288803, "excess_performance": -0.296203, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.215366, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020749, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.24234, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12406, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.285625, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000795, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.288803, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.341712, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 256033052, "relative_activity": 1.495377, "balance": 1.341712, "dry_up": 1.606517, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.207218, "annualized_volatility": 0.789957, "from_high_reference": -0.482517, "from_low_reference": 0.211129 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.862293, "fair_value_reference": 19.533831, "structural_low": 12.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.001562, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": 0.01117, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 0.780471, "worst_return": -0.152107, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.039913, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.002762, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.518382, "worst_return": -0.208459, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.267388, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.058284, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.889884, "worst_return": -0.206897, "sufficient": true }, 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"mixed", "direction": 33.205413, "energy": 61.396933, "activity_lines": [ 22.204, 20.777304, 19.600361, 19.49818 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.48, "volume": 272851992, "typical_volume": 151111372.35, "trend": 19.373959, "fair_value": 19.863604, "relative_strength": -25.170856, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.161306, "energy": 9.944069, "activity_lines": [ 20.004666, 19.982445, 19.258176, 19.238505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.15, "volume": 273588895, "typical_volume": 158748410.1, "trend": 19.228293, "fair_value": 19.749545, "relative_strength": -31.141662, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.156281, "energy": 39.457658, "activity_lines": [ 17.591333, 18.996341, 18.813944, 18.901475 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.54, "volume": 297774495, "typical_volume": 167490905.25, "trend": 19.013959, "fair_value": 19.630818, "relative_strength": -32.218781, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.681138, "energy": 53.988142, "activity_lines": [ 15.671333, 17.975897, 18.334521, 18.534489 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.8, "volume": 256033052, "typical_volume": 171216391.0, "trend": 18.862293, "fair_value": 19.533831, "relative_strength": -28.562468, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.56312, "energy": 53.999521, "activity_lines": [ 14.883333, 17.286727, 17.995099, 18.26262 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }