{ "ticker": { "uuid": "873c5149-0e98-4ee5-b3bb-2310349318b8", "symbol": "CCNR", "name": "ALPS | CORECOMMODITY NATURAL RESOURCES ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.303, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -0.724, "architecture_energy": 6.624, "architecture_maturity": 49.71, "architecture_confidence": 69.574, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.69, "rotation_up": 35.16, "upward_expansion": 22.53, "deceleration": 49.91, "rotation_down": 23.18, "downward_expansion": 33.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.54138, 38.224595, 38.9906, 39.176887 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 39.6773, "trend_reference": 39.110047, "distance_from_trend": 0.014504, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.352852, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.351736, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.678239, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.038605, "excess_performance": -0.148849, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014504, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056254, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.351736, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119098, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.016782, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0947, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.038605, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.564305, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43579, "relative_activity": 0.361511, "balance": 2.564305, "dry_up": 0.293405, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035451, "annualized_volatility": 0.151113, "from_high_reference": -0.095158, "from_low_reference": 0.514721 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.110047, "fair_value_reference": 29.352852, "structural_low": 36.698, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.058061, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.06148, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.058061, "worst_return": 0.058061, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.037639, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058061, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-07-12", "close": 24.635758, "volume": 4809, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-07-19", "close": 24.202288, "volume": 8783, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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39.301799 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 37.5, "volume": 1208431, "typical_volume": 263393.85, "trend": 38.43209, "fair_value": 29.008268, "relative_strength": -6.256128, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.38479, "energy": 64.45645, "activity_lines": [ 37.604853, 38.633204, 39.403733, 39.252697 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 37.5889, "volume": 29449, "typical_volume": 145244.75, "trend": 38.612647, "fair_value": 29.089217, "relative_strength": -2.229222, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.359194, "energy": 64.209157, "activity_lines": [ 37.463313, 38.291238, 39.211828, 39.198297 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.25, "volume": 24055, "typical_volume": 132924.4, "trend": 38.78448, "fair_value": 29.174832, "relative_strength": 0.789374, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.633184, "energy": 54.139523, "activity_lines": [ 37.700313, 38.136058, 39.095972, 39.174901 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.0766, "volume": 44393, "typical_volume": 132641.75, "trend": 38.938637, "fair_value": 29.257255, "relative_strength": -0.538855, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.350661, "energy": 29.417774, "activity_lines": [ 37.88598, 38.006204, 38.965793, 39.129231 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.6773, "volume": 43579, "typical_volume": 120546.7, "trend": 39.110047, "fair_value": 29.352852, "relative_strength": -1.678239, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.723774, "energy": 6.624485, "activity_lines": [ 38.54138, 38.224595, 38.9906, 39.176887 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }