{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8740806a-a64c-42e4-94bf-96644ad3f132", "symbol": "GT", "name": "The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -13.159, "architecture_energy": 22.805, "architecture_maturity": 30.914, "architecture_confidence": 46.909, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.78, "rotation_up": 43.06, "upward_expansion": 36.12, "deceleration": 43.59, "rotation_down": 20.5, "downward_expansion": 44.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 120.529999, 118.701817, 115.292285, 118.13815 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 112.0, "trend_reference": 126.385666, "distance_from_trend": -0.113824, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 182.171089, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.385193, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.864877, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.374302, "excess_performance": -0.319635, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.113824, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093553, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.385193, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034937, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.198649, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.171437, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.374302, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.405834, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 147, "relative_activity": 0.012054, "balance": 6.405834, "dry_up": 0.015538, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070501, "annualized_volatility": 0.489073, "from_high_reference": -0.38292, "from_low_reference": 0.173635 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 126.385666, "fair_value_reference": 182.171089, "structural_low": 95.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.134396, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.136007, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.134396, "worst_return": -0.134396, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.152847, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.127429, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.152847, "worst_return": 0.152847, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.015034, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.024625, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.015034, "worst_return": -0.015034, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066299, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.094211, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065692, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015895, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.03699, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063584, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047808, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03252, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.033613, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 220.539993, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 1430.5, "trend": 224.732668, "fair_value": 281.164424, "relative_strength": -4.432989, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.999678, "energy": 27.113582, "activity_lines": [ 115.38, 110.990545, 112.768809, 120.084408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 126.989998, "volume": 591, "typical_volume": 12206.25, "trend": 130.239332, "fair_value": 185.103718, "relative_strength": -12.400079, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.568593, "energy": 25.002134, "activity_lines": [ 119.919999, 114.337818, 113.768476, 119.795182 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 126.989998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 12203.75, "trend": 129.282332, "fair_value": 184.16673, "relative_strength": -10.728886, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 11.440908, "energy": 31.8355, "activity_lines": [ 123.327332, 117.417999, 114.847714, 119.585548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 123.0, "volume": 20, "typical_volume": 12200.5, "trend": 128.152332, "fair_value": 183.204166, "relative_strength": -12.840801, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.264272, "energy": 28.976676, "activity_lines": [ 123.961999, 119.248726, 115.593809, 119.180236 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 112.0, "volume": 147, "typical_volume": 12195.55, "trend": 126.385666, "fair_value": 182.171089, "relative_strength": -19.864877, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.158515, "energy": 22.805453, "activity_lines": [ 120.529999, 118.701817, 115.292285, 118.13815 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }