{ "ticker": { "uuid": "87445234-8349-4b0d-bfdd-dc8a9adda53a", "symbol": "KC", "name": "K.C. Property Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -4.621, "architecture_energy": 7.108, "architecture_maturity": 58.846, "architecture_confidence": 49.445, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.07, "rotation_up": 43.68, "upward_expansion": 40.03, "deceleration": 30.82, "rotation_down": 26.89, "downward_expansion": 17.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.026667, 0.025636, 0.02519, 0.025398 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.02, "trend_reference": 0.025667, "distance_from_trend": -0.220779, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.065641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.695312, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.691802, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.333333, "excess_performance": -0.525658, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.220779, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072289, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.695312, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110206, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.396918, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.171918, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.333333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.756234, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2524700, "relative_activity": 0.258474, "balance": 1.756234, "dry_up": 1.449781, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.576923, "annualized_volatility": 2.578798, "from_high_reference": -0.6, "from_low_reference": 1.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.025667, "fair_value_reference": 0.065641, "structural_low": 0.01, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.090909, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.088903, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.236111, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.294719, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.1, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.25, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.24933, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.571429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.272727, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.375, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": 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"2026-08-07", "close": 0.02, "volume": 2524700, "typical_volume": 9767715.0, "trend": 0.025667, "fair_value": 0.065641, "relative_strength": -39.691802, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.620789, "energy": 7.108089, "activity_lines": [ 0.026667, 0.025636, 0.02519, 0.025398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }