{ "ticker": { "uuid": "874801e4-0134-406f-81f4-ae17eaeadd8d", "symbol": "ONEW", "name": "Onewater Marine", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 27.221, "architecture_energy": 46.751, "architecture_maturity": 10.928, "architecture_confidence": 42.821, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.68, "rotation_up": 53.69, "upward_expansion": 52.63, "deceleration": 30.74, "rotation_down": 19.9, "downward_expansion": 17.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.390333, 12.043273, 11.558762, 11.276161 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.04, "trend_reference": 11.341333, "distance_from_trend": 0.061604, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.962853, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.365074, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.894228, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.131313, "excess_performance": -0.318767, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061604, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00712, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.365074, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052703, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.168942, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08668, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.131313, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.522485, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 307408, "relative_activity": 0.576623, "balance": 1.522485, "dry_up": 0.909495, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125165, "annualized_volatility": 0.69513, "from_high_reference": -0.328125, "from_low_reference": 0.482759 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.341333, "fair_value_reference": 18.962853, "structural_low": 8.12, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.096744, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.055945, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.123626, "worst_return": -0.159829, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.224071, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.233283, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.005451, "worst_return": -0.347801, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.285037, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.221757, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.059138, "worst_return": -0.296296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.249779, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.272362, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.21367, "worst_return": -0.285887, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.183575, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.132716, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.148607, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.328559, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.118954, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076389, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03137, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.181397, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.078083, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.234194, 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"activity_lines": [ 11.952667, 11.519273, 11.098952, 11.070108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.865, "volume": 393489, "typical_volume": 592820.8, "trend": 11.329667, "fair_value": 19.156571, "relative_strength": -7.989551, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.881226, "energy": 43.788241, "activity_lines": [ 12.336333, 11.817818, 11.313524, 11.17414 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.25, "volume": 527478, "typical_volume": 565611.65, "trend": 11.379, "fair_value": 19.063942, "relative_strength": -11.977595, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.833618, "energy": 45.055307, "activity_lines": [ 12.412667, 11.962818, 11.455214, 11.233516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.04, "volume": 307408, "typical_volume": 533118.15, "trend": 11.341333, "fair_value": 18.962853, "relative_strength": -16.894228, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.220768, "energy": 46.750934, "activity_lines": [ 12.390333, 12.043273, 11.558762, 11.276161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }