{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8748690e-4444-4f47-a1f1-2352e633799e", "symbol": "300887", "name": "Pony Testing Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.211, "architecture_energy": 53.15, "architecture_maturity": 73.046, "architecture_confidence": 91.691, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.09, "rotation_up": 26.91, "upward_expansion": 8.82, "deceleration": 60.94, "rotation_down": 52.03, "downward_expansion": 82.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.158667, 7.197455, 7.865143, 8.577505 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.91, "trend_reference": 9.706667, "distance_from_trend": -0.185096, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.87865, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.199283, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.470046, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.310976, "excess_performance": -0.318375, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.185096, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039198, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.199283, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136242, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1647, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063934, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.310976, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.51671, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 135366389, "relative_activity": 2.668259, "balance": 0.51671, "dry_up": 1.605533, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11096, "annualized_volatility": 0.379663, "from_high_reference": -0.528886, "from_low_reference": 0.30313 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.706667, "fair_value_reference": 9.87865, "structural_low": 6.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.039882, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.041409, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.630105, "worst_return": -0.317824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.08091, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008665, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.387387, "worst_return": -0.432545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.011097, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.113908, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.192024, "worst_return": -0.310153, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.311623, "energy": 87.618251, "activity_lines": [ 7.052, 7.500364, 8.358476, 9.101806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.39, "volume": 51508098, "typical_volume": 55803305.95, "trend": 9.836333, "fair_value": 10.037434, "relative_strength": -30.897788, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.458787, "energy": 76.660115, "activity_lines": [ 6.781333, 7.216545, 8.100905, 8.876172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.06, "volume": 73737279, "typical_volume": 54151846.9, "trend": 9.763, "fair_value": 9.956685, "relative_strength": -21.990773, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.763133, "energy": 65.035643, "activity_lines": [ 6.83, 7.111455, 7.932524, 8.697054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.91, "volume": 135366389, "typical_volume": 50732101.7, "trend": 9.706667, "fair_value": 9.87865, "relative_strength": -16.470046, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.210782, "energy": 53.149835, "activity_lines": [ 7.158667, 7.197455, 7.865143, 8.577505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }