{ "ticker": { "uuid": "87511afd-37a7-4d8a-a609-a5c970ba5ad5", "symbol": "AR1", "name": "Austral Resources Australia Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.3, "architecture_energy": 62.15, "architecture_maturity": 22.945, "architecture_confidence": 91.537, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.73, "rotation_up": 15.93, "upward_expansion": 12.49, "deceleration": 41.45, "rotation_down": 66.56, "downward_expansion": 88.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0656, 0.0678, 0.0744, 0.078254 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.072, "trend_reference": 0.0859, "distance_from_trend": -0.161816, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.139038, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.482158, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.239997, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.314286, "excess_performance": -0.377991, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.161816, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068408, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.482158, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175755, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.2924, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18005, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.314286, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.682321, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53783829, "relative_activity": 1.850605, "balance": 0.682321, "dry_up": 1.052917, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13141, "annualized_volatility": 0.64631, "from_high_reference": -0.55, "from_low_reference": 0.674419 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0859, "fair_value_reference": 0.139038, "structural_low": 0.057, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.010566, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 1.222222, "worst_return": -0.7, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.230471, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.21637, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.702128, "worst_return": -0.70625, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.12474, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.22387, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.531915, "worst_return": -0.781395, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01087, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.120879, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.346154, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.244681, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.107692, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.165, "volume": 1931643, "typical_volume": 2055358.6, "trend": 0.241833, "fair_value": 0.254415, "relative_strength": -29.754752, 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0.086333, "fair_value": 0.142513, "relative_strength": -37.664657, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.594168, "energy": 70.902033, "activity_lines": [ 0.071, 0.076691, 0.080476, 0.084024 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.061, "volume": 16229671, "typical_volume": 33401593.7, "trend": 0.086867, "fair_value": 0.141526, "relative_strength": -40.34047, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.874557, "energy": 78.043994, "activity_lines": [ 0.0668, 0.072855, 0.078419, 0.082389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.063, "volume": 25614601, "typical_volume": 31359179.5, "trend": 0.0874, "fair_value": 0.140615, "relative_strength": -37.03806, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.89006, "energy": 75.638792, "activity_lines": [ 0.064533, 0.070182, 0.076695, 0.080849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.062, "volume": 26774904, "typical_volume": 28522945.15, "trend": 0.086833, "fair_value": 0.139795, "relative_strength": -38.244933, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.498402, "energy": 75.347071, "activity_lines": [ 0.063067, 0.067891, 0.07501, 0.079211 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.072, "volume": 53783829, "typical_volume": 29062842.95, "trend": 0.0859, "fair_value": 0.139038, "relative_strength": -29.239997, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.300436, "energy": 62.150114, "activity_lines": [ 0.0656, 0.0678, 0.0744, 0.078254 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }