{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8763e193-7c4d-4460-8214-b295c1634d80", "symbol": "VG80", "name": "Ascory Bank AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 84.483, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.842, "architecture_energy": 48.717, "architecture_maturity": 37.932, "architecture_confidence": 94.698, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.1, "rotation_up": 15.72, "upward_expansion": 8.17, "deceleration": 41.33, "rotation_down": 58.75, "downward_expansion": 81.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.576, 2.6, 2.61319, 2.635247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.46, "trend_reference": 2.657, "distance_from_trend": -0.074144, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.843888, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.134987, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.645015, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.121429, "excess_performance": -0.186068, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.074144, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002642, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.134987, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035727, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.13645, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092657, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.121429, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.006637, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6893, "relative_activity": 4.648638, "balance": 0.006637, "dry_up": 1.167892, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045654, "annualized_volatility": 0.172625, "from_high_reference": -0.18, "from_low_reference": 0.064935 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.657, "fair_value_reference": 2.843888, "structural_low": 2.4, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.01507, "regime_survival": 0.590909, "best_return": 0.414141, "worst_return": -0.141176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.068565, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.010367, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.575, "worst_return": -0.276471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.058342, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.066111, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.6625, "worst_return": -0.170588, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.011416, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.102344, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.075676, "worst_return": -0.236181, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.152542, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.181208, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.129412, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.047945, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.227273, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034722, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.11875, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.133094, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.106299, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114391, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05668, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.061069, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.77, "volume": 15857, "typical_volume": 19608.3, "trend": 5.241, "fair_value": 4.268974, "relative_strength": -66.888443, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.461605, 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2.624727, 2.643857, 2.658172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.62, "volume": 14, "typical_volume": 1705.55, "trend": 2.668, "fair_value": 2.832093, "relative_strength": -4.369641, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.268453, "energy": 14.996633, "activity_lines": [ 2.628, 2.624727, 2.639048, 2.655032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.62, "volume": 21, "typical_volume": 1681.6, "trend": 2.666333, "fair_value": 2.83517, "relative_strength": -3.32928, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.2027, "energy": 16.558847, "activity_lines": [ 2.625333, 2.624727, 2.634619, 2.651935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.64, "volume": 12, "typical_volume": 1446.75, "trend": 2.665667, "fair_value": 2.837862, "relative_strength": -3.573483, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.445637, "energy": 16.287719, "activity_lines": [ 2.629333, 2.628, 2.632667, 2.650237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.64, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 1407.65, "trend": 2.666667, "fair_value": 2.841452, "relative_strength": -5.249733, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.13673, "energy": 14.370401, "activity_lines": [ 2.632, 2.630545, 2.631238, 2.648581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.46, "volume": 6893, "typical_volume": 1482.8, "trend": 2.657, "fair_value": 2.843888, "relative_strength": -13.645015, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.841854, "energy": 48.717296, "activity_lines": [ 2.576, 2.6, 2.61319, 2.635247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }