{ "ticker": { "uuid": "87648ea6-d8fb-4066-a564-31f570faccde", "symbol": "VHYL", "name": "Vanguard FTSE All-World High Dividend Yield UCITS ETF USD Distributing", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.339, "architecture_energy": 66.566, "architecture_maturity": 41.249, "architecture_confidence": 80.752, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 66.31, "upward_expansion": 84.26, "deceleration": 59.9, "rotation_down": 19.86, "downward_expansion": 10.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 69.035668, 68.609246, 67.609372, 66.810052 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 69.75, "trend_reference": 65.796346, "distance_from_trend": 0.060089, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 53.865323, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.294896, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.750642, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.079977, "excess_performance": 0.028742, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060089, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043315, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.294896, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046728, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.027506, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003852, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.079977, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.940009, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 502887, "relative_activity": 1.108996, "balance": 1.940009, "dry_up": 1.410377, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015924, "annualized_volatility": 0.099685, "from_high_reference": -0.005135, "from_low_reference": 0.261686 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 65.796346, "fair_value_reference": 53.865323, "structural_low": 61.439999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": 0.009898, "positive_rate": 0.711111, "directional_follow_through": 0.711111, "median_excess_return": 0.001582, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.074635, "worst_return": -0.073701, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.027225, "positive_rate": 0.823529, "directional_follow_through": 0.823529, "median_excess_return": 0.00975, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.089622, "worst_return": -0.05375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.02814, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.027357, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.14921, "worst_return": -0.038657, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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68.605335, 68.273521, 67.279249, 66.538124 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 69.75, "volume": 502887, "typical_volume": 453461.4, "trend": 65.796346, "fair_value": 53.865323, "relative_strength": 2.750642, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.338699, "energy": 66.565792, "activity_lines": [ 69.035668, 68.609246, 67.609372, 66.810052 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }