{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8766b164-4429-4129-a148-1d6ce8347900", "symbol": "EQS", "name": "Equus Total Return Closed Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.473, "architecture_energy": 43.026, "architecture_maturity": 67.537, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.23, "rotation_up": 18.07, "upward_expansion": 6.3, "deceleration": 46.28, "rotation_down": 55.89, "downward_expansion": 79.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.158347, 1.182295, 1.248091, 1.305766 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.195, "trend_reference": 1.356733, "distance_from_trend": -0.119208, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.428547, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.163486, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.957839, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.087786, "excess_performance": -0.213411, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.119208, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107665, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.163486, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052676, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.339578, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053595, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.087786, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.341602, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31549, "relative_activity": 0.498644, "balance": 0.341602, "dry_up": 0.624723, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.148684, "annualized_volatility": 0.638045, "from_high_reference": -0.52008, "from_low_reference": 0.116822 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.356733, "fair_value_reference": 1.428547, "structural_low": 1.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.009915, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.018073, "regime_survival": 0.861111, "best_return": 0.6, "worst_return": -0.201031, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.03228, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.141946, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.249474, "worst_return": -0.26394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.14286, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.216234, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.287547, "worst_return": -0.235714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.137584, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.368755, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.128405, "worst_return": -0.287081, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-07-22", "end": "2023-02-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.162679, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-02-10", "end": "2023-03-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.162791, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-03-17", "end": "2023-05-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054054, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-05-12", "end": "2023-07-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056962, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-07-21", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.09396, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.08, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.231051, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.245079, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018464, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.438621, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070321, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.180723, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.146429, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.5, "volume": 115446, "typical_volume": 29382.35, "trend": 1.561167, "fair_value": 1.936758, "relative_strength": -15.14883, "stage": 4, "regime": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.127261, "energy": 54.571902, "activity_lines": [ 1.20372, 1.251487, 1.311959, 1.350457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.07, "volume": 35307, "typical_volume": 63617.75, "trend": 1.368233, "fair_value": 1.432746, "relative_strength": -39.112355, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.200053, "energy": 62.606648, "activity_lines": [ 1.156707, 1.209393, 1.281781, 1.329947 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.16, "volume": 56969, "typical_volume": 65086.2, "trend": 1.361567, "fair_value": 1.430759, "relative_strength": -34.252675, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.962854, "energy": 52.120873, "activity_lines": [ 1.149027, 1.189298, 1.261889, 1.316512 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.195, "volume": 31549, "typical_volume": 63269.6, "trend": 1.356733, "fair_value": 1.428547, "relative_strength": -33.957839, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.472991, "energy": 43.025857, "activity_lines": [ 1.158347, 1.182295, 1.248091, 1.305766 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }