{ "ticker": { "uuid": "87672bcb-44cf-4acb-8098-dd3a0350298f", "symbol": "RTV", "name": "Your Family Entertainment AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.586, "architecture_energy": 65.378, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.498, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.05, "rotation_up": 29.98, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.68, "rotation_down": 46.48, "downward_expansion": 73.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.41, 0.410727, 0.446024, 0.497065 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.41, "trend_reference": 0.598333, "distance_from_trend": -0.314763, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.829647, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.775913, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -55.039318, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.570681, "excess_performance": -0.63532, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.314763, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.26359, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.775913, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029484, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.550393, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022929, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.570681, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.02, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.02, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052533, "annualized_volatility": 0.695, "from_high_reference": -0.705036, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.598333, "fair_value_reference": 1.829647, "structural_low": 0.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.015464, "positive_rate": 0.25641, "directional_follow_through": 0.641026, "median_excess_return": -0.037485, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.672269, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.057554, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.026842, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.519084, "worst_return": -0.484536, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.011719, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.133153, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.431655, "worst_return": -0.57732, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"color": "red", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09375, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029197, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.139241, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088889, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.081301, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031008, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056911, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.829167, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.7, "volume": 14, "typical_volume": 1178.5, "trend": 2.623333, "fair_value": 2.051731, "relative_strength": 1.817961, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.726645, "energy": 14.500012, 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"close": 0.41, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1248.8, "trend": 0.653833, "fair_value": 1.874327, "relative_strength": -55.321936, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.062113, "energy": 85.22869, "activity_lines": [ 0.41, 0.426, 0.468738, 0.540645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.41, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 933.95, "trend": 0.635167, "fair_value": 1.859263, "relative_strength": -54.883522, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.611733, "energy": 80.021585, "activity_lines": [ 0.41, 0.418727, 0.459786, 0.524914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.41, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 515.05, "trend": 0.6165, "fair_value": 1.844712, "relative_strength": -54.828353, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.807596, "energy": 65.601532, "activity_lines": [ 0.41, 0.413636, 0.452619, 0.510387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.41, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 126.05, "trend": 0.598333, "fair_value": 1.829647, "relative_strength": -55.039318, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.58608, "energy": 65.378275, "activity_lines": [ 0.41, 0.410727, 0.446024, 0.497065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }