{ "ticker": { "uuid": "87737ee8-8cf2-41af-a587-bb82527ec8a5", "symbol": "603208", "name": "Jiangshan Oupai Door Industry Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.263, "architecture_energy": 55.69, "architecture_maturity": 74.493, "architecture_confidence": 92.938, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.3, "rotation_up": 20.29, "upward_expansion": 8.99, "deceleration": 60.01, "rotation_down": 60.41, "downward_expansion": 82.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.398667, 10.618364, 11.516143, 12.160258 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.82, "trend_reference": 13.043667, "distance_from_trend": -0.170479, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.079332, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.432894, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.355067, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.270889, "excess_performance": -0.227686, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.170479, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090506, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.432894, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097569, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.213551, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073859, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.270889, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.513029, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8735895, "relative_activity": 0.9789, "balance": 0.513029, "dry_up": 1.153951, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098749, "annualized_volatility": 0.308845, "from_high_reference": -0.367251, "from_low_reference": 0.167206 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.043667, "fair_value_reference": 19.079332, "structural_low": 9.27, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.032088, "positive_rate": 0.361111, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.029333, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.264743, "worst_return": -0.164786, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.059386, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.066616, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.591853, "worst_return": -0.316363, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.159769, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.183408, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.670159, "worst_return": -0.281156, 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12.405143, 12.961591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.48, "volume": 10961250, "typical_volume": 9363108.95, "trend": 13.504, "fair_value": 19.512474, "relative_strength": -22.391415, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.3995, "energy": 84.933198, "activity_lines": [ 10.750667, 11.306727, 12.165714, 12.757548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.46, "volume": 11213576, "typical_volume": 9043934.7, "trend": 13.326, "fair_value": 19.359862, "relative_strength": -30.075701, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.085486, "energy": 76.822978, "activity_lines": [ 10.291333, 10.862182, 11.852095, 12.496645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.46, "volume": 10281624, "typical_volume": 8972809.7, "trend": 13.168, "fair_value": 19.22927, "relative_strength": -22.438765, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.138904, "energy": 61.811202, "activity_lines": [ 10.274667, 10.681818, 11.658, 12.311742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.82, "volume": 8735895, "typical_volume": 8924193.35, "trend": 13.043667, "fair_value": 19.079332, "relative_strength": -21.355067, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.263495, "energy": 55.689762, "activity_lines": [ 10.398667, 10.618364, 11.516143, 12.160258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }