{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8779e4e5-5e3f-4138-b08b-8cb080ce7132", "symbol": "PMET", "name": "PMET Resources Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.176, "architecture_energy": 76.398, "architecture_maturity": 14.358, "architecture_confidence": 75.307, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.29, "rotation_up": 6.1, "upward_expansion": 24.43, "deceleration": 43.03, "rotation_down": 76.23, "downward_expansion": 85.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.453333, 4.908182, 5.466333, 5.463871 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.7, "trend_reference": 5.558667, "distance_from_trend": -0.154473, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.478013, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.142025, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.308221, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.252782, "excess_performance": -0.373203, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.154473, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029701, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.142025, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.292027, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.163082, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.670779, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.252782, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.421466, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1261800, "relative_activity": 0.903561, "balance": 0.421466, "dry_up": 1.361428, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137725, "annualized_volatility": 0.785057, "from_high_reference": -0.398207, "from_low_reference": 0.540984 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.558667, "fair_value_reference": 5.478013, "structural_low": 3.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.016038, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.068646, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.268551, "worst_return": -0.282209, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.147467, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.161363, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.9801, "worst_return": -0.349904, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.266554, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.351369, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.411321, "worst_return": -0.571429, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043814, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.34748, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.154176, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.271218, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.422434, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.394584, "active": false }, { "regime": 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5.691667, "fair_value": 5.654936, "relative_strength": -21.011828, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.942646, "energy": 37.371588, "activity_lines": [ 5.204, 5.670364, 5.797714, 5.70929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.36, "volume": 1842900, "typical_volume": 1374725.0, "trend": 5.655333, "fair_value": 5.584167, "relative_strength": -20.537586, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.515745, "energy": 62.900663, "activity_lines": [ 4.840667, 5.367455, 5.682857, 5.623376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.09, "volume": 2823500, "typical_volume": 1445525.0, "trend": 5.607, "fair_value": 5.524872, "relative_strength": -24.958643, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.885466, "energy": 79.530749, "activity_lines": [ 4.495333, 5.059455, 5.544619, 5.522387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.7, "volume": 1261800, "typical_volume": 1396475.0, "trend": 5.558667, "fair_value": 5.478013, "relative_strength": -16.308221, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.175878, "energy": 76.397852, "activity_lines": [ 4.453333, 4.908182, 5.466333, 5.463871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }