{ "ticker": { "uuid": "877bc6f5-b5fd-4f30-bc15-f568d5bb4e1b", "symbol": "MBI", "name": "MBIA Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.337, "architecture_energy": 59.649, "architecture_maturity": 30.932, "architecture_confidence": 73.009, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.42, "rotation_up": 13.79, "upward_expansion": 14.43, "deceleration": 35.66, "rotation_down": 70.09, "downward_expansion": 80.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.498, 5.877636, 5.967333, 5.998946 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.11, "trend_reference": 6.095333, "distance_from_trend": -0.161654, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.582375, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.084619, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.407164, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.223404, "excess_performance": -0.349029, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.161654, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067326, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.084619, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141672, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.314072, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127141, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.223404, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.127753, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2936750, "relative_activity": 1.766897, "balance": 1.127753, "dry_up": 1.417099, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119449, "annualized_volatility": 0.406796, "from_high_reference": -0.381356, "from_low_reference": 0.049281 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.095333, "fair_value_reference": 5.582375, "structural_low": 4.87, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.078431, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.073461, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.088481, "worst_return": -0.275416, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.183473, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.165136, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.01586, "worst_return": -0.210721, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.106443, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.045405, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.439926, "worst_return": -0.159432, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.00367, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.083612, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.101664, "worst_return": -0.094324, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009901, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.175207, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.247863, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.073937, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.118056, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.302326, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.281304, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.143774, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.105951, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083444, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.103641, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056231, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.064122, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.171799, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.846503, "volume": 1314959, "typical_volume": 2040181.9, "trend": 4.449395, "fair_value": 4.894516, "relative_strength": -26.575996, "stage": 4, "regime": 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"typical_volume": 1589643.05, "trend": 6.271667, "fair_value": 5.556294, "relative_strength": -9.591008, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.864273, "energy": 40.275747, "activity_lines": [ 6.514667, 6.37, 6.181143, 6.177505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.66, "volume": 2511055, "typical_volume": 1617925.2, "trend": 6.223, "fair_value": 5.56722, "relative_strength": -21.264007, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.143681, "energy": 8.499845, "activity_lines": [ 6.247333, 6.263455, 6.140286, 6.138043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.12, "volume": 2631453, "typical_volume": 1644562.1, "trend": 6.163, "fair_value": 5.575209, "relative_strength": -29.233024, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.144685, "energy": 34.055051, "activity_lines": [ 5.828, 6.062364, 6.052286, 6.066882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.11, "volume": 2936750, "typical_volume": 1662094.8, "trend": 6.095333, "fair_value": 5.582375, "relative_strength": -31.407164, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.336675, "energy": 59.64893, "activity_lines": [ 5.498, 5.877636, 5.967333, 5.998946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }