{ "ticker": { "uuid": "877fca2f-1954-4c5f-8fec-970c1d1fbccd", "symbol": "EUJP", "name": "WisdomTree Long JPY Short EUR", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 57.285, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 23.544, "architecture_energy": 20.532, "architecture_maturity": 10.774, "architecture_confidence": 52.481, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.03, "rotation_up": 44.19, "upward_expansion": 34.82, "deceleration": 30.91, "rotation_down": 24.97, "downward_expansion": 25.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.312667, 26.258364, 26.226167, 26.249398 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 26.549999, "trend_reference": 26.295667, "distance_from_trend": 0.009672, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.223397, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.091481, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.365185, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.013165, "excess_performance": -0.157726, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009672, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006967, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.091481, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024675, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153652, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009691, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.013165, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.369362, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7964, "relative_activity": 1.806162, "balance": 0.369362, "dry_up": 1.534013, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010256, "annualized_volatility": 0.058455, "from_high_reference": -0.070378, "from_low_reference": 0.048992 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.295667, "fair_value_reference": 29.223397, "structural_low": 25.309999, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.00709, "positive_rate": 0.176471, "directional_follow_through": 0.176471, "median_excess_return": -0.029814, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.046779, "worst_return": -0.051491, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.05274, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.139352, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.00283, "worst_return": -0.088797, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.093558, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.185925, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.004877, "worst_return": -0.114911, 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-04-21", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.071231, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.048624, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.014769, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011358, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023583, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.005923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.003329, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002497, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.132661, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012393, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 31.85, "volume": 5125, "typical_volume": 10758.5, "trend": 33.967833, "fair_value": 38.181025, "relative_strength": -16.355516, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", 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"activity_lines": [ 26.231, 26.212364, 26.215667, 26.262796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.065001, "volume": 4579, "typical_volume": 4323.4, "trend": 26.308333, "fair_value": 29.335128, "relative_strength": -15.606081, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.048802, "energy": 21.764964, "activity_lines": [ 26.181334, 26.184637, 26.197952, 26.246419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.975, "volume": 10985, "typical_volume": 4607.6, "trend": 26.293167, "fair_value": 29.293301, "relative_strength": -15.244298, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.502485, "energy": 43.540507, "activity_lines": [ 26.105667, 26.144909, 26.172976, 26.224914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.415001, "volume": 3528, "typical_volume": 4487.55, "trend": 26.292333, "fair_value": 29.25641, "relative_strength": -13.834082, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.516916, "energy": 10.661146, "activity_lines": [ 26.191334, 26.190909, 26.193, 26.232774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.549999, "volume": 7964, "typical_volume": 4409.35, "trend": 26.295667, "fair_value": 29.223397, "relative_strength": -15.365185, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.544208, "energy": 20.531772, "activity_lines": [ 26.312667, 26.258364, 26.226167, 26.249398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }