{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "8783d73d-ae6e-459d-93ce-5b3386447fb0",
    "symbol": "000488",
    "name": "Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited",
    "exchange": "SHZ",
    "country": "CN",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "399001.SZ",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -70.776,
    "architecture_energy": 74.682,
    "architecture_maturity": 28.163,
    "architecture_confidence": 96,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 17.6,
        "rotation_up": 23.35,
        "upward_expansion": 16.8,
        "deceleration": 41.36,
        "rotation_down": 60.43,
        "downward_expansion": 90.13
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        1.926,
        1.962182,
        2.114333,
        2.230022
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 1.89,
    "trend_reference": 2.309,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.181464,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 2.959231,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.361321,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -18.618487,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.125,
    "excess_performance": -0.1324,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.181464,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.01661,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.361321,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.147033,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.186185,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.111692,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.125,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.239152,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 50887711,
      "relative_activity": 0.679088,
      "balance": 0.239152,
      "dry_up": 0.627126,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.076109,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.38486,
      "from_high_reference": -0.407524,
      "from_low_reference": 0.027174
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 2.309,
      "fair_value_reference": 2.959231,
      "structural_low": 1.84,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 39,
        "median_return": -0.03,
        "positive_rate": 0.282051,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.717949,
        "median_excess_return": -0.009849,
        "regime_survival": 0.820513,
        "best_return": 0.125,
        "worst_return": -0.206226,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 14,
        "median_return": -0.044272,
        "positive_rate": 0.214286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.785714,
        "median_excess_return": -0.01812,
        "regime_survival": 0.714286,
        "best_return": 0.199422,
        "worst_return": -0.41194,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.136967,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.122647,
        "regime_survival": 0.625,
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        "worst_return": -0.350168,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.280232,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.100333,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": -0.136961,
        "worst_return": -0.350453,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-09-20",
        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "end": "2024-11-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "tenure": "Extended",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.015464,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "return": 0.0,
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      {
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "end": "2025-09-19",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-02-06",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.004785,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
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        "stage": 4,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "stage": 4,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
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        "typical_volume": 93113177.3,
        "trend": 2.319333,
        "fair_value": 2.97859,
        "relative_strength": -10.214132,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "direction": -64.759514,
        "energy": 72.071411,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 1.89,
        "volume": 50887711,
        "typical_volume": 74935320.35,
        "trend": 2.309,
        "fair_value": 2.959231,
        "relative_strength": -18.618487,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -70.775563,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}