{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8784d7ea-f4d3-46f6-8dc0-b497b41cfd1a", "symbol": "SMI", "name": "Santana Minerals Limited Ordina", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.624, "architecture_energy": 48.688, "architecture_maturity": 92.231, "architecture_confidence": 72.276, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.27, "rotation_up": 26.47, "upward_expansion": 14.5, "deceleration": 66.85, "rotation_down": 49.71, "downward_expansion": 75.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.589333, 0.589273, 0.637619, 0.709118 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.68, "trend_reference": 0.833167, "distance_from_trend": -0.183837, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.740452, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.081642, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.104512, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.418803, "excess_performance": -0.447077, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.183837, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131213, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.081642, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087792, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.241045, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125004, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.418803, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.838507, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7303653, "relative_activity": 2.882425, "balance": 0.838507, "dry_up": 1.97753, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113122, "annualized_volatility": 0.601333, "from_high_reference": -0.512545, "from_low_reference": 0.373737 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.833167, "fair_value_reference": 0.740452, "structural_low": 0.495, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.105263, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.125793, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.014599, "worst_return": -0.155556, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.153285, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.203907, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.153285, "worst_return": -0.153285, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.51, "volume": 3685252, "typical_volume": 2192913.75, "trend": 0.863667, "fair_value": 0.742555, "relative_strength": -43.035166, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.453036, "energy": 85.832221, "activity_lines": [ 0.536, 0.582727, 0.652762, 0.738258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.58, "volume": 3704774, "typical_volume": 2281508.25, "trend": 0.848, "fair_value": 0.741022, "relative_strength": -34.748275, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.952146, "energy": 69.765798, "activity_lines": [ 0.546333, 0.575727, 0.639429, 0.719957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.68, "volume": 7303653, "typical_volume": 2533857.3, "trend": 0.833167, "fair_value": 0.740452, "relative_strength": -24.104512, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.62383, "energy": 48.688496, "activity_lines": [ 0.589333, 0.589273, 0.637619, 0.709118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }