{ "ticker": { "uuid": "878a092f-7faf-4fea-9550-602eb3c647f0", "symbol": "MARI", "name": "Marimaca Copper Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.024, "architecture_energy": 37.508, "architecture_maturity": 61.521, "architecture_confidence": 92.541, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.79, "rotation_up": 22.53, "upward_expansion": 4.14, "deceleration": 55.84, "rotation_down": 50.42, "downward_expansion": 77.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.434667, 7.489818, 7.695952, 8.049957 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.0, "trend_reference": 8.778, "distance_from_trend": -0.088631, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.262821, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.27738, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.459334, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.279928, "excess_performance": -0.400349, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.088631, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122024, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.27738, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157704, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.274593, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065909, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.279928, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.525091, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 560600, "relative_activity": 0.761411, "balance": 0.525091, "dry_up": 0.828778, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10125, "annualized_volatility": 0.523856, "from_high_reference": -0.406968, "from_low_reference": 0.190476 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.778, "fair_value_reference": 6.262821, "structural_low": 6.72, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.016667, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": 0.007779, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.521739, "worst_return": -0.122449, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.04, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.012658, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.273913, "worst_return": -0.175342, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.032293, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.005167, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.38913, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.202563, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.045668, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.71087, "worst_return": -0.283951, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.099476, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.048193, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053933, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.217391, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.22807, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.062016, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057587, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105657, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"energy": 39.125942, "activity_lines": [ 7.704, 7.733455, 7.991714, 8.509806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.08, "volume": 714000, "typical_volume": 852800.0, "trend": 9.175667, "fair_value": 6.200769, "relative_strength": -35.587449, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.955618, "energy": 47.058055, "activity_lines": [ 7.472, 7.594545, 7.875095, 8.36628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.1, "volume": 447300, "typical_volume": 790265.0, "trend": 9.043667, "fair_value": 6.219615, "relative_strength": -34.999486, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.112325, "energy": 47.062643, "activity_lines": [ 7.307333, 7.486182, 7.775619, 8.232366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.12, "volume": 718900, "typical_volume": 763685.0, "trend": 8.903667, "fair_value": 6.238141, "relative_strength": -33.890784, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.568236, "energy": 49.146414, "activity_lines": [ 7.216667, 7.400909, 7.688571, 8.108258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.0, "volume": 560600, "typical_volume": 736265.0, "trend": 8.778, "fair_value": 6.262821, "relative_strength": -27.459334, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.023837, "energy": 37.507891, "activity_lines": [ 7.434667, 7.489818, 7.695952, 8.049957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }