{ "ticker": { "uuid": "878e658f-8696-4687-bdf8-89a6a37fe687", "symbol": "JCPN", "name": "Janus Henderson Japan High Conviction Equity UCITS ETF ACC", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.003, "architecture_energy": 51.267, "architecture_maturity": 66.069, "architecture_confidence": 83.551, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.55, "rotation_up": 42.53, "upward_expansion": 68.33, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 27.67, "downward_expansion": 20.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.836607, 0.83838, 0.814353, 0.793443 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.8562, "trend_reference": 0.76902, "distance_from_trend": 0.113365, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.678954, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.261057, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.685443, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.189828, "excess_performance": 0.018936, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.113365, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074921, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.261057, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123265, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.016854, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044201, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.189828, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.134129, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12868, "relative_activity": 0.883952, "balance": 6.134129, "dry_up": 0.602119, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028166, "annualized_volatility": 0.231389, "from_high_reference": -0.043352, "from_low_reference": 0.343691 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.76902, "fair_value_reference": 0.678954, "structural_low": 0.6719, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080379, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-08", "close": 0.6027, "volume": 6790, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-15", "close": 0.6053, "volume": 5005, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": 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"typical_volume": 30186.0, "trend": 0.75904, "fair_value": 0.675419, "relative_strength": 2.585219, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.746217, "energy": 63.056439, "activity_lines": [ 0.837793, 0.83358, 0.802907, 0.783559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.8199, "volume": 12908, "typical_volume": 24160.05, "trend": 0.763857, "fair_value": 0.677007, "relative_strength": 0.333629, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.501052, "energy": 48.507702, "activity_lines": [ 0.829893, 0.83298, 0.807147, 0.787485 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.8562, "volume": 12868, "typical_volume": 14557.35, "trend": 0.76902, "fair_value": 0.678954, "relative_strength": 1.685443, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.00314, "energy": 51.267421, "activity_lines": [ 0.836607, 0.83838, 0.814353, 0.793443 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }