{ "ticker": { "uuid": "878f4d3c-54d4-4408-be3d-3c92e8ea5276", "symbol": "TL0", "name": "Tesla, Inc.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.278, "architecture_energy": 82.714, "architecture_maturity": 18.128, "architecture_confidence": 79.535, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.26, "rotation_up": 10.71, "upward_expansion": 21.9, "deceleration": 34.17, "rotation_down": 77.4, "downward_expansion": 92.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 289.396665, 310.960906, 327.735235, 331.491073 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 287.5, "trend_reference": 338.873331, "distance_from_trend": -0.1516, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 274.809807, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.046178, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.412685, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.173969, "excess_performance": -0.238609, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.1516, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050389, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.046178, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.327466, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.234127, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.316006, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.173969, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.205468, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 123535, "relative_activity": 1.171499, "balance": 1.205468, "dry_up": 1.307409, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083278, "annualized_volatility": 0.473876, "from_high_reference": -0.321934, "from_low_reference": 0.101533 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 338.873331, "fair_value_reference": 274.809807, "structural_low": 261.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.035121, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": 0.029674, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.538067, "worst_return": -0.33436, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.096045, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.008009, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.244264, "worst_return": -0.295115, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.096975, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.004447, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.527441, "worst_return": -0.251579, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"energy": 83.910449, "activity_lines": [ 298.806663, 319.201815, 332.120235, 335.006019 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 287.5, "volume": 123535, "typical_volume": 105450.35, "trend": 338.873331, "fair_value": 274.809807, "relative_strength": -23.412685, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.278422, "energy": 82.713606, "activity_lines": [ 289.396665, 310.960906, 327.735235, 331.491073 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }