{ "ticker": { "uuid": "87908115-bcff-4aad-9077-fda42c4c24e9", "symbol": "POLYG", "name": "Polygiene Group AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.906, "architecture_energy": 58.717, "architecture_maturity": 76.594, "architecture_confidence": 93.742, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.53, "rotation_up": 23.98, "upward_expansion": 10.56, "deceleration": 44.69, "rotation_down": 56.02, "downward_expansion": 83.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.844667, 4.974, 5.492238, 5.86557 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.59, "trend_reference": 6.470667, "distance_from_trend": -0.290645, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.712198, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.473152, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -46.785514, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.46, "excess_performance": -0.521494, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.290645, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.185294, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.473152, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.213163, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.467855, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092621, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.46, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.870424, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34736, "relative_activity": 1.695705, "balance": 0.870424, "dry_up": 2.225185, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.157198, "annualized_volatility": 0.579312, "from_high_reference": -0.577806, "from_low_reference": 0.024554 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.470667, "fair_value_reference": 8.712198, "structural_low": 4.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.033365, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.023477, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.340611, "worst_return": -0.465323, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.091388, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.060766, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.435203, "worst_return": -0.414516, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.111717, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.213148, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.54352, "worst_return": -0.551613, "sufficient": true }, { 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.136865, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.075, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012024, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.340611, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084291, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 4.99, "volume": 14692, "typical_volume": 22958.2, "trend": 7.088667, "fair_value": 8.726086, "relative_strength": -43.823006, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.619306, "energy": 64.422753, "activity_lines": [ 5.136667, 5.375273, 5.99181, 6.376452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.9, "volume": 9089, "typical_volume": 21169.15, "trend": 6.910333, "fair_value": 8.721453, "relative_strength": -43.097848, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.375224, "energy": 57.446577, "activity_lines": [ 5.037333, 5.240909, 5.859762, 6.235247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.99, "volume": 101850, "typical_volume": 23144.9, "trend": 6.765333, "fair_value": 8.719202, "relative_strength": -42.121005, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.17466, "energy": 46.401038, "activity_lines": [ 5.006667, 5.151273, 5.744571, 6.111355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.99, "volume": 36654, "typical_volume": 23535.0, "trend": 6.624333, "fair_value": 8.717013, "relative_strength": -41.960011, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.146247, "energy": 49.135273, "activity_lines": [ 4.988667, 5.088364, 5.634095, 5.996817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.59, "volume": 34736, "typical_volume": 20484.7, "trend": 6.470667, "fair_value": 8.712198, "relative_strength": -46.785514, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.906025, "energy": 58.717467, "activity_lines": [ 4.844667, 4.974, 5.492238, 5.86557 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }