{ "ticker": { "uuid": "87992039-bdb5-4bf8-ac29-27270afbcfa4", "symbol": "XPO", "name": "XPO, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.547, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.5, "architecture_energy": 61.975, "architecture_maturity": 69.457, "architecture_confidence": 92.919, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.48, "rotation_up": 45.64, "upward_expansion": 55.0, "deceleration": 88.0, "rotation_down": 28.0, "downward_expansion": 22.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 3711.0, 3711.0, 3711.514265, 3669.262353 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3711.0, "trend_reference": 3515.160962, "distance_from_trend": 0.055713, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1830.831679, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.026948, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 38.518393, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.400377, "excess_performance": 0.455044, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055713, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.255279, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.026948, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.310768, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.385184, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.249337, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.400377, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 5e-05, "annualized_volatility": 0.35895, "from_high_reference": -0.000646, "from_low_reference": 1.566337 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3515.160962, "fair_value_reference": 1830.831679, "structural_low": 2650.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.001645, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.02115, "worst_return": -0.036145, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.039604, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.007353, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.832604, "worst_return": -0.134319, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.733981, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.609391, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.567996, "worst_return": -0.100035, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.349687, 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3711.0, 3711.436346, 3707.942143, 3545.970836 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3711.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 71.0, "trend": 3253.297298, "fair_value": 1763.498346, "relative_strength": 48.065611, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.0, "energy": 63.55, "activity_lines": [ 3711.0, 3711.261807, 3710.657244, 3580.370946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3711.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 12.7, "trend": 3328.796297, "fair_value": 1780.671422, "relative_strength": 45.53143, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.0, "energy": 60.4, "activity_lines": [ 3711.0, 3711.130904, 3711.891392, 3609.900153 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3711.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2.7, "trend": 3404.295296, "fair_value": 1797.844499, "relative_strength": 43.863837, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.0, "energy": 60.4, "activity_lines": [ 3711.0, 3711.043635, 3711.754255, 3634.558456 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3711.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2.7, "trend": 3479.794295, "fair_value": 1815.017576, "relative_strength": 40.584618, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.5, "energy": 61.975, "activity_lines": [ 3711.0, 3711.0, 3711.628546, 3654.345856 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3711.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2.7, "trend": 3515.160962, "fair_value": 1830.831679, "relative_strength": 38.518393, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.5, "energy": 61.975, "activity_lines": [ 3711.0, 3711.0, 3711.514265, 3669.262353 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }