{ "ticker": { "uuid": "879c0e9c-422e-4920-912f-9d6def3de14e", "symbol": "OTS", "name": "OTS Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.006, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.19, "architecture_energy": 51.785, "architecture_maturity": 53.489, "architecture_confidence": 79.444, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.04, "rotation_up": 40.22, "upward_expansion": 65.76, "deceleration": 94.82, "rotation_down": 29.63, "downward_expansion": 17.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.138333, 0.138182, 0.136786, 0.13263 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.142, "trend_reference": 0.127833, "distance_from_trend": 0.110821, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.125192, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.134255, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.594029, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.183333, "excess_performance": 0.028498, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.110821, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058515, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.134255, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014916, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.00594, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161869, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.183333, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.543183, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30000, "relative_activity": 0.380493, "balance": 0.543183, "dry_up": 1.492168, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026002, "annualized_volatility": 0.267527, "from_high_reference": -0.053333, "from_low_reference": 0.44898 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.127833, "fair_value_reference": 0.125192, "structural_low": 0.11, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.230769, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.24497, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.230769, "worst_return": -0.230769, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.146853, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.153174, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.146853, "worst_return": -0.146853, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.293706, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.349414, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.293706, "worst_return": -0.293706, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.160839, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.385544, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.160839, "worst_return": -0.160839, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008065, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.12, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.148438, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027211, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.157407, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.186992, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.115044, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089552, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.081081, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021583, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036496, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.15, "volume": 3000, "typical_volume": 44495.0, "trend": 0.146533, "fair_value": 0.21203, "relative_strength": -5.960934, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.78508, "energy": 20.926101, 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"relative_strength": 5.337714, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.246249, "energy": 50.638433, "activity_lines": [ 0.138867, 0.138727, 0.131481, 0.127705 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.138, "volume": 4000, "typical_volume": 129110.0, "trend": 0.1243, "fair_value": 0.12559, "relative_strength": 4.190668, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.192934, "energy": 44.550122, "activity_lines": [ 0.138667, 0.138818, 0.132586, 0.128624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.138, "volume": 48000, "typical_volume": 124470.0, "trend": 0.124833, "fair_value": 0.125449, "relative_strength": 0.032159, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.346577, "energy": 54.909554, "activity_lines": [ 0.1384, 0.138582, 0.13361, 0.129508 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.136, "volume": 175300, "typical_volume": 129235.0, "trend": 0.125367, "fair_value": 0.125436, "relative_strength": -2.018456, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.821609, "energy": 40.435988, "activity_lines": [ 0.137467, 0.138, 0.134362, 0.130228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.137, "volume": 209400, "typical_volume": 138705.0, "trend": 0.125933, "fair_value": 0.125333, "relative_strength": -2.455139, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.737626, "energy": 35.914182, "activity_lines": [ 0.137133, 0.137745, 0.135133, 0.130978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.136, "volume": 55900, "typical_volume": 129700.0, "trend": 0.126467, "fair_value": 0.125244, "relative_strength": -3.687171, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.303193, "energy": 48.058027, "activity_lines": [ 0.136667, 0.137418, 0.135729, 0.131628 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.142, "volume": 30000, "typical_volume": 78845.0, "trend": 0.127833, "fair_value": 0.125192, "relative_strength": -0.594029, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.190454, "energy": 51.785469, "activity_lines": [ 0.138333, 0.138182, 0.136786, 0.13263 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }