{ "ticker": { "uuid": "879f51d2-4c0e-4253-9a52-5f22d17eac15", "symbol": "BIRKN", "name": "BIRKENSTOCK HOLDING PLC", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 49.404, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 4.122, "architecture_energy": 38.436, "architecture_maturity": 32.39, "architecture_confidence": 42.059, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.25, "rotation_up": 31.81, "upward_expansion": 33.0, "deceleration": 53.0, "rotation_down": 22.77, "downward_expansion": 50.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 729.880005, 729.880005, 705.025007, 709.821835 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 729.880005, "trend_reference": 733.45634, "distance_from_trend": -0.004876, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 865.624881, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.156817, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.002743, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.136237, "excess_performance": -0.08157, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004876, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038001, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.156817, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.147823, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.090027, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.245039, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.136237, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012224, "annualized_volatility": 0.512289, "from_high_reference": -0.232513, "from_low_reference": 0.188943 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 733.45634, "fair_value_reference": 865.624881, "structural_low": 613.890015, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.013553, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.188943, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-02-23", "close": 910.669983, "volume": 165, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-03-01", "close": 910.669983, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": 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222.75, "trend": 750.747005, "fair_value": 872.246583, "relative_strength": -13.278639, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 12.730859, "energy": 69.410504, "activity_lines": [ 729.880005, 698.246371, 686.711009, 715.850352 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 729.880005, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 222.75, "trend": 749.776339, "fair_value": 871.098465, "relative_strength": -12.460484, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 13.176152, "energy": 69.558098, "activity_lines": [ 729.880005, 708.790916, 688.392866, 714.504094 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 729.880005, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 222.75, "trend": 748.805672, "fair_value": 869.968717, "relative_strength": -11.06042, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 11.774031, "energy": 68.740425, "activity_lines": [ 729.880005, 717.226552, 690.622913, 713.220459 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 729.880005, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 222.75, "trend": 744.968339, "fair_value": 868.856902, "relative_strength": -10.563463, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.855357, "energy": 66.803411, "activity_lines": [ 729.880005, 723.553278, 693.401151, 711.999448 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 729.880005, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 222.75, "trend": 741.131006, "fair_value": 867.762596, "relative_strength": -9.578298, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.378622, "energy": 43.543877, "activity_lines": [ 729.880005, 727.771096, 696.727579, 711.026007 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 729.880005, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 222.75, "trend": 737.293673, "fair_value": 866.685388, "relative_strength": -9.645567, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.214731, "energy": 41.061845, "activity_lines": [ 729.880005, 729.880005, 700.602198, 710.300136 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 729.880005, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 222.75, "trend": 733.45634, "fair_value": 865.624881, "relative_strength": -9.002743, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.122491, "energy": 38.435606, "activity_lines": [ 729.880005, 729.880005, 705.025007, 709.821835 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }