{ "ticker": { "uuid": "87a39d41-9440-4e3c-ae50-4445dffd862e", "symbol": "300979", "name": "Huali Industrial Group Company Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.357, "architecture_energy": 28.549, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.492, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.26, "rotation_up": 29.39, "upward_expansion": 22.79, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 26.81, "downward_expansion": 61.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.788, 32.813273, 33.887005, 36.148014 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 34.23, "trend_reference": 39.49342, "distance_from_trend": -0.133273, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 51.644636, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.337201, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.818702, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.267834, "excess_performance": -0.275234, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.133273, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163315, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.337201, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041192, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.278187, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124556, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.267834, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.119423, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15306597, "relative_activity": 1.501632, "balance": 1.119423, "dry_up": 1.803983, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068188, "annualized_volatility": 0.285695, "from_high_reference": -0.452013, "from_low_reference": 0.158768 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.49342, "fair_value_reference": 51.644636, "structural_low": 29.540001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.02645, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": 0.002875, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.258318, "worst_return": -0.110075, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.038266, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.024468, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.199994, "worst_return": -0.248629, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.054586, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.136198, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.150551, "worst_return": -0.160417, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"energy": 66.814709, "activity_lines": [ 31.229333, 31.97139, 34.627269, 37.378538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.830002, "volume": 22519569, "typical_volume": 9299918.75, "trend": 40.498076, "fair_value": 51.796168, "relative_strength": -29.857075, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.327069, "energy": 61.843273, "activity_lines": [ 31.820001, 31.954909, 34.193224, 36.839942 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.52, "volume": 22165061, "typical_volume": 9953972.85, "trend": 39.976808, "fair_value": 51.725082, "relative_strength": -22.016404, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.287453, "energy": 43.298375, "activity_lines": [ 33.202667, 32.504, 34.077181, 36.518776 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.23, "volume": 15306597, "typical_volume": 10193308.9, "trend": 39.49342, "fair_value": 51.644636, "relative_strength": -27.818702, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.356771, "energy": 28.549377, "activity_lines": [ 33.788, 32.813273, 33.887005, 36.148014 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }