{ "ticker": { "uuid": "87a49bab-94c1-4187-8ec7-5d44163209cf", "symbol": "CINESG", "name": "UBS MSCI China Universal UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 61.078, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 30.838, "architecture_energy": 36.082, "architecture_maturity": 94.333, "architecture_confidence": 68.346, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.82, "rotation_up": 65.97, "upward_expansion": 36.69, "deceleration": 43.83, "rotation_down": 16.75, "downward_expansion": 23.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.347667, 9.173764, 9.170376, 9.203758 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.485, "trend_reference": 9.297739, "distance_from_trend": 0.02014, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.340044, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.137284, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.848969, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.023022, "excess_performance": -0.193914, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02014, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022984, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.137284, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016629, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.14849, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024931, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.023022, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.57562, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24257, "relative_activity": 0.488839, "balance": 0.57562, "dry_up": 0.26821, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024338, "annualized_volatility": 0.15431, "from_high_reference": -0.076526, "from_low_reference": 0.098691 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.297739, "fair_value_reference": 8.340044, "structural_low": 8.633, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.003174, "positive_rate": 0.517241, "directional_follow_through": 0.482759, "median_excess_return": -0.020715, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.228028, "worst_return": -0.100453, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.010324, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.029806, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.243662, "worst_return": -0.118106, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.01339, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.132286, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.392139, "worst_return": -0.102203, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 54.051162, "activity_lines": [ 8.926333, 8.976491, 9.099205, 9.186449 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.281, "volume": 16063, "typical_volume": 56236.95, "trend": 9.322006, "fair_value": 8.31874, "relative_strength": -14.372526, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.421051, "energy": 18.653517, "activity_lines": [ 9.0574, 9.019291, 9.111481, 9.183277 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.466, "volume": 3276, "typical_volume": 53918.35, "trend": 9.311549, "fair_value": 8.327863, "relative_strength": -12.891833, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.689528, "energy": 18.055222, "activity_lines": [ 9.226533, 9.097655, 9.140238, 9.192567 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.485, "volume": 24257, "typical_volume": 49621.65, "trend": 9.297739, "fair_value": 8.340044, "relative_strength": -14.848969, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.837568, "energy": 36.081755, "activity_lines": [ 9.347667, 9.173764, 9.170376, 9.203758 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }