{ "ticker": { "uuid": "87b60faa-1ac6-45fe-b831-4761044c24db", "symbol": "000887", "name": "Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.197, "architecture_energy": 43.277, "architecture_maturity": 5.313, "architecture_confidence": 79.706, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.8, "rotation_up": 16.19, "upward_expansion": 11.65, "deceleration": 36.77, "rotation_down": 62.01, "downward_expansion": 80.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.951334, 18.458909, 18.917026, 19.078045 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 19.33, "trend_reference": 19.652618, "distance_from_trend": -0.016416, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.951033, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.211834, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.919228, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.076004, "excess_performance": -0.083404, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016416, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043976, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.211834, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012016, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.099192, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.16062, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.076004, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.315826, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 181168333, "relative_activity": 1.219246, "balance": 2.315826, "dry_up": 1.294523, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125327, "annualized_volatility": 0.592844, "from_high_reference": -0.274071, "from_low_reference": 0.198388 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.652618, "fair_value_reference": 15.951033, "structural_low": 16.129999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.025886, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.017516, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.366906, "worst_return": -0.133697, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.053914, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.056059, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.7053, "worst_return": -0.078064, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.060347, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.136805, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.142306, "worst_return": -0.133008, "sufficient": 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19.388277, 19.719363 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 20.68, "volume": 283870881, "typical_volume": 129575514.1, "trend": 20.315618, "fair_value": 15.829488, "relative_strength": -9.942721, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.660521, "energy": 12.168019, "activity_lines": [ 19.710666, 20.032525, 19.512284, 19.740893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.17, "volume": 287092576, "typical_volume": 139499383.55, "trend": 20.154285, "fair_value": 15.85787, "relative_strength": -17.576816, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.167784, "energy": 33.473394, "activity_lines": [ 18.817333, 19.531838, 19.305005, 19.53795 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.200001, "volume": 181922065, "typical_volume": 142918270.85, "trend": 19.972285, "fair_value": 15.878038, "relative_strength": -22.152118, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.238526, "energy": 53.324768, "activity_lines": [ 17.811334, 18.877645, 19.027393, 19.282835 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.25, "volume": 119232666, "typical_volume": 144187058.6, "trend": 19.781952, "fair_value": 15.905435, "relative_strength": -15.575818, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.95878, "energy": 54.887167, "activity_lines": [ 17.531334, 18.451245, 18.868305, 19.107203 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.33, "volume": 181168333, "typical_volume": 148590521.65, "trend": 19.652618, "fair_value": 15.951033, "relative_strength": -9.919228, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.197026, "energy": 43.276606, "activity_lines": [ 17.951334, 18.458909, 18.917026, 19.078045 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }