{ "ticker": { "uuid": "87b652b9-a0fe-4480-ac57-38bda360dbcf", "symbol": "K2A-B", "name": "K2A Knaust & Andersson Fastigheter AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.444, "architecture_energy": 34.371, "architecture_maturity": 19.697, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.55, "rotation_up": 22.71, "upward_expansion": 9.94, "deceleration": 38.95, "rotation_down": 48.43, "downward_expansion": 76.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.25, 4.265636, 4.382595, 4.427925 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.3, "trend_reference": 4.508333, "distance_from_trend": -0.046211, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.969167, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.382997, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.569909, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.077253, "excess_performance": -0.138748, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.046211, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053004, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.382997, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040051, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.215699, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034585, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.077253, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.482489, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 245410, "relative_activity": 0.741032, "balance": 0.482489, "dry_up": 0.552011, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094991, "annualized_volatility": 0.545458, "from_high_reference": -0.426667, "from_low_reference": 0.128609 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.508333, "fair_value_reference": 6.969167, "structural_low": 3.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.031275, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.048246, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.391566, "worst_return": -0.363636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.046738, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.128557, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 1.120623, "worst_return": -0.564069, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.168885, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.277734, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.77821, "worst_return": -0.652717, "sufficient": true }, 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"typical_volume": 352707.4, "trend": 4.584, "fair_value": 7.096795, "relative_strength": -21.938039, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.022948, "energy": 18.764083, "activity_lines": [ 4.388, 4.316727, 4.455881, 4.496527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.1, "volume": 103680, "typical_volume": 347971.4, "trend": 4.557833, "fair_value": 7.052949, "relative_strength": -24.554723, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.445925, "energy": 21.042794, "activity_lines": [ 4.314, 4.265455, 4.421048, 4.465301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.21, "volume": 165043, "typical_volume": 336797.7, "trend": 4.5315, "fair_value": 7.010321, "relative_strength": -22.669041, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.672672, "energy": 20.87985, "activity_lines": [ 4.268667, 4.249455, 4.397571, 4.44286 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.3, "volume": 245410, "typical_volume": 331173.35, "trend": 4.508333, "fair_value": 6.969167, "relative_strength": -21.569909, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.444133, "energy": 34.37115, "activity_lines": [ 4.25, 4.265636, 4.382595, 4.427925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }