{ "ticker": { "uuid": "87b7175d-ff5d-47e0-8ca8-c59cedb97c72", "symbol": "TSEC", "name": "Tempest Security AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 72.526, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.368, "architecture_energy": 21.947, "architecture_maturity": 19.168, "architecture_confidence": 52.733, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.81, "rotation_up": 40.04, "upward_expansion": 72.69, "deceleration": 63.4, "rotation_down": 21.45, "downward_expansion": 1.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.373333, 11.350909, 11.220952, 11.000667 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.2, "trend_reference": 10.790667, "distance_from_trend": 0.037934, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.796923, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.12479, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.54393, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.061611, "excess_performance": 0.000117, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037934, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011904, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.12479, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095084, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135439, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060418, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.061611, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.9919, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 83279, "relative_activity": 1.2689, "balance": 0.9919, "dry_up": 0.832429, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107143, "annualized_volatility": 0.387461, "from_high_reference": -0.407407, "from_low_reference": 0.209503 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.790667, "fair_value_reference": 12.796923, "structural_low": 9.48, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.004464, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017008, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.300971, "worst_return": -0.156, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.030471, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.003721, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.291262, "worst_return": -0.170124, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.063712, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.134694, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.26087, "worst_return": -0.408046, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.241048, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.230582, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.067961, "worst_return": -0.421053, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.062305, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081633, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.241699, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.087379, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.213235, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.134884, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116183, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.042654, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.160714, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043478, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.050847, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13.85, "volume": 28576, "typical_volume": 12604.0, "trend": 15.36, "fair_value": 28.500641, "relative_strength": -16.036268, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", 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18417, "typical_volume": 51872.05, "trend": 10.904, "fair_value": 12.911667, "relative_strength": -14.629574, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.187284, "energy": 16.956741, "activity_lines": [ 11.36, 11.247273, 10.858238, 10.801032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 11.8, "volume": 79481, "typical_volume": 55549.95, "trend": 10.890667, "fair_value": 12.894679, "relative_strength": -10.870451, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.283454, "energy": 18.931725, "activity_lines": [ 11.413333, 11.396364, 10.969333, 10.858839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.9, "volume": 105331, "typical_volume": 59161.4, "trend": 10.852333, "fair_value": 12.872564, "relative_strength": -15.487404, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.490026, "energy": 16.830242, "activity_lines": [ 11.246667, 11.349091, 10.989476, 10.859441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.1, "volume": 22694, "typical_volume": 59642.8, "trend": 10.850667, "fair_value": 12.85141, "relative_strength": -12.109339, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.140295, "energy": 15.512742, "activity_lines": [ 11.186667, 11.323636, 11.027952, 10.875419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.7, "volume": 53114, "typical_volume": 61629.95, "trend": 10.874, "fair_value": 12.834423, "relative_strength": -8.230915, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.529523, "energy": 22.537168, "activity_lines": [ 11.346667, 11.390909, 11.119524, 10.930215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.6, "volume": 59445, "typical_volume": 64024.65, "trend": 10.834, "fair_value": 12.816474, "relative_strength": -9.56576, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.918919, "energy": 23.843835, "activity_lines": [ 11.446667, 11.410909, 11.193095, 10.977054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.2, "volume": 83279, "typical_volume": 65630.85, "trend": 10.790667, "fair_value": 12.796923, "relative_strength": -13.54393, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.368135, "energy": 21.946612, "activity_lines": [ 11.373333, 11.350909, 11.220952, 11.000667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }