{ "ticker": { "uuid": "87c55bf6-2efc-4209-9cef-3e00ecc8d1b2", "symbol": "XNAS", "name": "Xtrackers NASDAQ 100 UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.058, "architecture_energy": 34.221, "architecture_maturity": 68.417, "architecture_confidence": 91.721, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.64, "rotation_up": 32.27, "upward_expansion": 61.39, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 27.9, "downward_expansion": 22.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.190666, 54.544, 53.853357, 52.025355 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 55.669998, "trend_reference": 49.807334, "distance_from_trend": 0.117707, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.524246, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.340662, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.026585, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.242218, "excess_performance": 0.159335, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.117707, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057496, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.340662, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014798, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.040266, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080094, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.242218, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.031418, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22201, "relative_activity": 0.987279, "balance": 4.031418, "dry_up": 0.866065, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031947, "annualized_volatility": 0.186655, "from_high_reference": -0.050847, "from_low_reference": 0.305582 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.807334, "fair_value_reference": 41.524246, "structural_low": 42.639999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.020856, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.01309, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.098184, "worst_return": -0.086471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.006275, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.005044, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.159776, "worst_return": -0.033496, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.162885, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.118393, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.211096, "worst_return": 0.120928, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023953, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041696, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.063011, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033352, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035492, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017955, "active": false }, { 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 53.490002, "volume": 14832, "typical_volume": 20114.35, "trend": 49.108667, "fair_value": 41.074726, "relative_strength": 1.470641, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.809078, "energy": 55.210817, "activity_lines": [ 54.866001, 54.947455, 53.021596, 51.117936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 53.73, "volume": 18247, "typical_volume": 20689.3, "trend": 49.346334, "fair_value": 41.220207, "relative_strength": 1.954659, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.501423, "energy": 47.845269, "activity_lines": [ 54.351334, 54.759091, 53.310643, 51.416086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.66, "volume": 22621, "typical_volume": 21593.3, "trend": 49.54, "fair_value": 41.360367, "relative_strength": -0.167764, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.681798, "energy": 30.5818, "activity_lines": [ 53.691334, 54.367455, 53.457572, 51.629871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 55.669998, "volume": 22201, "typical_volume": 22487.05, "trend": 49.807334, "fair_value": 41.524246, "relative_strength": 4.026585, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.057539, "energy": 34.221448, "activity_lines": [ 54.190666, 54.544, 53.853357, 52.025355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }