{ "ticker": { "uuid": "87c92ac3-1429-410d-88f3-952ce3186710", "symbol": "CBZ", "name": "CBIZ Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 79.075, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 91.504, "architecture_energy": 96.632, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 76.359, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.65, "rotation_up": 89.63, "upward_expansion": 100.0, "deceleration": 39.0, "rotation_down": 8.02, "downward_expansion": 22.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.556, 43.727818, 38.559762, 35.993699 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 54.5, "trend_reference": 34.517667, "distance_from_trend": 0.578902, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 61.371731, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.111969, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.875022, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.424092, "excess_performance": 0.298467, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.578902, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104917, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.111969, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.394241, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.11875, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.591639, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.424092, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.855737, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9071284, "relative_activity": 1.6676, "balance": 3.855737, "dry_up": 1.89207, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082038, "annualized_volatility": 0.725505, "from_high_reference": -0.189471, "from_low_reference": 1.243722 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.517667, "fair_value_reference": 61.371731, "structural_low": 24.29, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.000119, "positive_rate": 0.516129, "directional_follow_through": 0.516129, "median_excess_return": 0.012224, "regime_survival": 0.677419, "best_return": 0.12766, "worst_return": -0.159234, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.057035, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.033648, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.293402, "worst_return": -0.085955, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.096123, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.034958, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.353728, "worst_return": -0.133016, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044047, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064795, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.073199, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002485, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041633, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", 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32.343091, 30.985, 32.309075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 35.12, "volume": 2946973, "typical_volume": 5117007.95, "trend": 35.579, "fair_value": 61.604231, "relative_strength": -30.509122, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.432732, "energy": 9.926235, "activity_lines": [ 33.306, 32.911273, 31.479048, 32.242215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 37.79, "volume": 3206929, "typical_volume": 5085979.7, "trend": 35.057, "fair_value": 61.504744, "relative_strength": -24.803851, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 15.21574, "energy": 17.337066, "activity_lines": [ 34.771333, 33.884, 32.192714, 32.38486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 42.42, "volume": 4231949, "typical_volume": 4601740.35, "trend": 34.726667, "fair_value": 61.432179, "relative_strength": -12.67044, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 55.580673, "energy": 61.289367, "activity_lines": [ 37.522667, 35.596182, 33.30619, 32.859892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.63, "volume": 2476383, "typical_volume": 4339940.1, "trend": 34.383333, "fair_value": 61.37, "relative_strength": -9.977448, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.578566, "energy": 72.365532, "activity_lines": [ 39.866667, 37.137455, 34.374048, 33.369785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.08, "volume": 25389749, "typical_volume": 5255478.45, "trend": 34.526, "fair_value": 61.373462, "relative_strength": 15.981069, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 95.71312, "energy": 97.265881, "activity_lines": [ 45.592, 40.693091, 36.563476, 34.705054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.5, "volume": 9071284, "typical_volume": 5439725.45, "trend": 34.517667, "fair_value": 61.371731, "relative_strength": 11.875022, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.504464, "energy": 96.632275, "activity_lines": [ 49.556, 43.727818, 38.559762, 35.993699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }