{ "ticker": { "uuid": "87cce925-9b37-4846-857b-2f42ece9d272", "symbol": "RINF", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST INFLATION EXPECTATIONS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 91.143, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.613, "architecture_energy": 58.392, "architecture_maturity": 5.039, "architecture_confidence": 66.979, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.91, "rotation_up": 67.02, "upward_expansion": 87.65, "deceleration": 44.02, "rotation_down": 12.69, "downward_expansion": 11.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.57882, 32.467705, 32.417555, 32.317842 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 32.62, "trend_reference": 32.20193, "distance_from_trend": 0.012983, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.147862, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.047263, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.418896, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.016634, "excess_performance": -0.108991, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.012983, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005462, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.047263, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000895, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094189, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008507, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.016634, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.497925, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8096, "relative_activity": 0.387648, "balance": 0.497925, "dry_up": 0.848496, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009012, "annualized_volatility": 0.036616, "from_high_reference": -0.005179, "from_low_reference": 0.035163 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.20193, "fair_value_reference": 31.147862, "structural_low": 31.559611, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.003423, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014387, "regime_survival": 0.633333, "best_return": 0.038954, "worst_return": -0.06747, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.00286, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.040387, "regime_survival": 0.307692, "best_return": 0.037426, "worst_return": -0.061006, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.018491, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.054612, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.117805, "worst_return": -0.050192, "sufficient": true }, 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32.313463, 32.350462, 32.31395, 32.229204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.4758, "volume": 10985, "typical_volume": 23326.95, "trend": 32.159552, "fair_value": 31.109564, "relative_strength": -6.248065, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.474926, "energy": 29.163458, "activity_lines": [ 32.379393, 32.363245, 32.338359, 32.250936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.7589, "volume": 25377, "typical_volume": 23029.35, "trend": 32.182304, "fair_value": 31.129027, "relative_strength": -6.169643, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.230009, "energy": 55.735355, "activity_lines": [ 32.524247, 32.429963, 32.386511, 32.289604 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.62, "volume": 8096, "typical_volume": 20884.9, "trend": 32.20193, "fair_value": 31.147862, "relative_strength": -9.418896, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.612881, "energy": 58.391682, "activity_lines": [ 32.57882, 32.467705, 32.417555, 32.317842 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }