{ "ticker": { "uuid": "87cdfcae-bffc-41c8-ae54-8fa0f8685a18", "symbol": "EUREUA", "name": "UBS Core MSCI Europe UCITS ETF EUR dis", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.349, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.204, "architecture_energy": 75.922, "architecture_maturity": 41.42, "architecture_confidence": 75.364, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.09, "rotation_up": 65.66, "upward_expansion": 87.31, "deceleration": 53.65, "rotation_down": 23.13, "downward_expansion": 13.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 108.178668, 107.468729, 105.505144, 103.858906 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 109.900002, "trend_reference": 102.131836, "distance_from_trend": 0.07606, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 85.768414, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.281358, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.789959, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.096897, "excess_performance": -0.073995, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07606, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040793, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.281358, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067812, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0379, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018272, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.096897, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.992726, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3892, "relative_activity": 1.317848, "balance": 0.992726, "dry_up": 0.765076, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015497, "annualized_volatility": 0.143231, "from_high_reference": -0.003446, "from_low_reference": 0.246792 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 102.131836, "fair_value_reference": 85.768414, "structural_low": 91.43, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": 0.014323, "positive_rate": 0.627907, "directional_follow_through": 0.627907, "median_excess_return": -0.004811, "regime_survival": 0.767442, "best_return": 0.075774, "worst_return": -0.098564, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.020849, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.030277, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.089729, "worst_return": -0.039947, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.075822, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.026605, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.133229, "worst_return": -0.117121, "sufficient": true }, { 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84.830372, "relative_strength": -4.94065, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.572119, "energy": 86.612274, "activity_lines": [ 106.780001, 105.515274, 103.270524, 102.135642 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 106.540001, "volume": 1749, "typical_volume": 3232.1, "trend": 101.032211, "fair_value": 85.056197, "relative_strength": -3.679127, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.017266, "energy": 84.834021, "activity_lines": [ 106.841335, 105.923819, 103.744572, 102.514523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 107.300003, "volume": 2177, "typical_volume": 3089.25, "trend": 101.417134, "fair_value": 85.284369, "relative_strength": -2.74087, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.615211, "energy": 83.796892, "activity_lines": [ 107.053335, 106.362183, 104.275763, 102.918896 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 107.860001, "volume": 1220, "typical_volume": 3106.1, "trend": 101.772712, "fair_value": 85.525051, "relative_strength": -2.850145, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.167696, "energy": 65.739271, "activity_lines": [ 107.342668, 106.769092, 104.818334, 103.334565 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 109.900002, "volume": 3892, "typical_volume": 2953.3, "trend": 102.131836, "fair_value": 85.768414, "relative_strength": -3.789959, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.204379, "energy": 75.921599, "activity_lines": [ 108.178668, 107.468729, 105.505144, 103.858906 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }